Hail in Arkansas, May 3, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
415 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TX IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
LIFT FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.  PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
THAT...BUT H5 RIDGE PROGGED TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...SHIFTING EAST AROUN 12Z SUNDAY.  STILL KEPT POPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...IN COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.

ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND A SIGNICANT SHORTWAVE SWINGS
INTO OK DURING THE DAY. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT/DRY LINE.  FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DEEP MOISTURE ALL DAY AND WILL HAVE BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST STORMS
WILL DEVLEOP...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH RAPIDLY...EVEN THOUGH AVN
PROG BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH MORE SLOWLY.  EXPECT DRY AIR AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MONDAY...SO WILL TAKE MENTION OF RAIN
OUT.

THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT NEVER GETS VERY FAR SOUTH...AND BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER WARMFRONT IS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. SOME PRECIP COULD BE HEAVY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL WATCH THAT SITUATION CLOSELY.

TUL   67   82   61   80  / 50   50   20    0
FSM   63   80   64   82  / 50   60   50   10
MLC   69   83   63   81  / 60   50   30    5
BVO   66   83   58   80  / 50   50   10    0
FYV   61   77   60   80  / 50   60   40   10
BYV   58   76   63   81  / 50   60   50   10
MKO   65   83   60   81  / 50   50   20    5
MIO   61   78   59   80  / 50   60   20    0
F10   67   83   61   81  / 50   50   20    5
HHW   68   83   66   82  / 60   50   40   10

FORECAST ID= 2

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
   THE EVENING HOURS...CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY EVENING.  A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...SPREADING EAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT SUNDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE AREA PUSHING A DRY LINE EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRY LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...QUICKLY FORMING A COMPLEX OF
SEVERE STORMS AND MOVING EAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 70 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER BOW SEGMENTS.  THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SEVERE STORMS SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ049-053-040100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #220 UNTIL 800
PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES...
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...CLAYTON AND HUGO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0153 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0725 PM    9 ENE HEAVENER            OK   F0 TORNADO
05/01/03   LE FLORE                       BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NUMEROUS
                                          TRESS DAMAGED
                                          REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE

NK