Flash Flood in Arkansas, May 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
236 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS CAN MAKE IN THE WEATHER...THE QUIET
WEATHER OF LAST NIGHT HAS TURNED TO LIGHTNING AND THUNDER THIS
MORNING. COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MO AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TUESDAY EVENING...AND IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. MAINLY SOME HEAVY
RAIN...LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND THUNDER...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. GFS DID A GOOD JOB OF PREDICTING IN EARLIER RUN...AND LATEST
RUN INDICATES THIS DEVELOPING MCS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT DONE WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
DAY. MODELS INDICATE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S. MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH THESE INGREDIENTS TO SET OFF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...GFS SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVES IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOTED OVER OK THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH IT MAY
UNDERGO STAGES OF EVOLUTION...IT PROBABLY WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
PARTS OF OUR CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...LIKELY POPS FOR
TODAY LOOKS GOOD AND WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF SEVERE...MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. SPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT RISK.

GFS AND MESOETA DISAGREE ON WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. GFS PUSHES A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THE MESOETA INDICATES THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
OUR CWA. THE MESOETA SHOWS HIGH CAPES AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR CWA
THURSDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG THE
FRONT. THINK BEST WAY TO GO IS TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.

GFS INDICATES STORMY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY OFF AND ON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY SATURDAY WITH APPROACH OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST. THINK DRIER WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY RETURN SUNDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MEM 76/63/82/64/77 74335
MKL 75/60/80/59/76 64334
JBR 75/60/81/60/75 63335
TUP 76/64/82/64/80 75335

.MEG...NONE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

ARZ036-TNZ088-140730-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
145 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CRITTENDEN AND SHELBY
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE
AT 145 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...MARION...TURRELL AND WEST MEMPHIS...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.