Flash Flood in Arkansas, June 16, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

UPPER TROF IN THE AREA WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THIS MORNING ARE KEEPING IT IN THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT OVER. WOULD
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IN THE AREA FROM THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THE WAY THE UPPER TROF IS SET UP...THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND ANY
FLOODING WOULD BE IN THAT AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GENERAL RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE REAL GREAT AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES DO NOT APPEAR WARRENTED
AT THIS TIME. DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH...WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND WILL MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AS LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE THUNDERSORMS CAN MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL RAISE
POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH
MAY MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH. MAXES TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND BACKED OFF A
LITTLE ON THE GRIDS WITH THE MAX TEMPS. WITH THE UPPER TROF REMAINING
IN THE AREA...KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ADJUSTED POPS UP A LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO TENDED TO
LOWER MAX TEMP FORECASTS A LITTLE. KEPT EXTENDED ABOUT THE SAME
AS THE TROF SHOULD EITHER WEAKEN OR MOVE OUT LATER IN THE WEEK
AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTH WHERE STORMS MOVE VERY LITTLE. WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
ARE RATHER LIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE STORMS TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED
BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE VERY
SLOWLY OR SEVERAL STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA IN A PERIOD OF
SEVERAL HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.