Damaging Wind in Arkansas, July 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA. AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER
GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE. FIGURE ON MCS TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. MODELS
HINT AT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z WITH
THE FRONT BEING OUT OF THE AREA SOONER THAN THAT. WENT WITH 70
PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH POPS DECREASING
FROM THE NORTH STARTING AT MIDDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN THE
SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT OR MCS SLOW THEIR SPEED BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ALL RAIN OUT OF THE CWA BY THEN.
THREAT OF SEVERE WITH MOSTLY DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES LATER TONIGHT THEN COOL MIN TEMPS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW
MAV TEMPS. ADDED SOME POPS FROM SUNDAY ON AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES IN.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-221000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
145 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM MISSOURI INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO A CONCERN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...REACHING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL
BE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS.

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