Tornado in Arizona, September 9, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003

.SYNOPSIS...FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA BY THURSDAY...WITH NO MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE RAIN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...FIRST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
DEEPENING GREAT BASIN TROUGH CAUSED A HUGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
BLOW UP OVER GILA COUNTY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAKER AND LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...MAINLY WHERE 30 KT UPSLOPE FLOW
INTERACTS WITH THE RIM. ANOTHER S/WV BRINGS SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FORCING WITH IT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED OVER A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SUN HEATING UP THE SURFACE. SEVERE CELLS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AS
WELL TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF THE CURRENT COMPLEX AS THIS AREA WILL
BECOME SUBSTANTIALLY RAIN COOLED.

ANOTHER S/WV MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ZONES WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE WEST DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. DURATION OF THIS EVENT LONG ENOUGH THAT MANY
AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS IN
GILA COUNTY WILL LIKELY VERIFY FIRST. DRY AIR AND WIND SWITCH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH NO MORE PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS
POINT. PETERSON.

.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ

.FGZ...FFA UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES 8/12/16/16/17/18/37/38.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   WED     THU        TDY TON   WED   THU
FLAGSTAFF        065/051 066/043 068/039      070 050 040 020 020 000
WINSLOW          080/062 079/052 079/048      030 030 020 010 000 000
PRESCOTT         075/058 077/052 078/048      060 050 040 020 000 000
PAGE             085/068 082/063 082/059      030 020 020 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      070/052 070/046 072/042      060 040 040 030 020 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 076/059 076/053 078/049      040 030 030 030 020 000
COTTONWOOD       086/066 088/060 089/056      050 040 030 020 000 000
GRAND CANYON     066/052 067/044 069/040      050 040 030 020 000 000
GREER            062/050 063/042 065/038      070 050 040 030 030 000
HEBER            070/054 071/046 073/042      070 050 040 020 020 000
JACOB LAKE       062/051 063/043 065/039      040 030 030 020 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      068/058 068/052 070/048      050 040 030 020 000 000
PAYSON           079/058 081/052 082/048      060 050 040 020 000 000
SEDONA           083/065 085/059 086/055      060 050 040 020 000 000
SELIGMAN         078/051 080/045 081/041      040 030 030 020 000 000
SHOW LOW         071/060 072/052 074/048      040 040 030 030 020 000
ST. JOHNS        076/058 075/048 075/044      040 040 030 030 020 000
WUPATKI N.M.     082/064 081/054 081/050      040 030 020 010 000 000

AZZ004>018-037>040-090200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST MON SEP 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST BUT STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UTAH WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...INCLUDING
MUCH OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO HIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE UP TO 1 INCH OF RAIN...WITH
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SYSTEM.