Hail in Arizona, September 6, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT SEP 06 2003

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WEAK UPWARD MOTION TO NORTHERN THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND TERRAIN
INDUCED LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.

FOR SUNDAY DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE CURRENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED. MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE DAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH COULD
SURGE BACK EARLIER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. WE WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY
WET TWO DAYS.

.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   SUN     MON        TDY TON   SUN   MON
FLAGSTAFF        075/048 077/046 076/048      040 030 020 000 020 010
WINSLOW          086/061 089/058 088/060      020 020 000 000 000 000
PRESCOTT         083/058 085/057 084/059      040 030 020 000 000 000
PAGE             089/069 091/068 089/070      030 020 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      078/052 080/049 079/051      040 030 020 020 020 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 084/064 086/061 085/063      030 020 000 000 010 000
COTTONWOOD       095/066 097/065 096/067      030 020 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON     077/052 079/050 077/050      030 020 000 000 000 000
GREER            070/047 074/045 073/047      040 030 020 020 020 020
HEBER            079/053 081/051 081/051      040 030 020 000 020 010
JACOB LAKE       072/048 074/046 073/048      030 020 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      076/058 078/055 077/057      040 020 010 000 010 000
PAYSON           089/058 091/057 089/059      030 030 000 000 000 000
SEDONA           092/065 094/064 092/066      030 020 010 000 000 000
SELIGMAN         085/056 087/055 086/057      020 020 010 000 000 000
SHOW LOW         081/056 083/054 082/056      040 030 010 010 020 010
ST. JOHNS        085/060 088/057 087/056      030 020 010 010 010 010
WUPATKI N.M.     087/063 091/060 090/062      030 020 000 000 000 000

AZZ004>018-037>040-060200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST FRI SEP 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THICK MORNING CLOUD COVER
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

BY LATE MORNING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COCONINO PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM. THESE STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

MOST STORMS TODAY WILL CONTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM.

BECAUSE OF THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TODAY...SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS...AND MINOR FLOODING BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MONSOON MOISTURE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...AND WILL LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATLY DECREASED BY THIS FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.