Hail in Arizona, July 30, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST WED JUL 30 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH
THE COMING WEEKEND. LOOK FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE...AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH LAYERED
EASTERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF WEAK INERTIAL STABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...COUPLED WITH AN EAST-WEST THETA-E RIDGE...HAS
CREATED A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...MORNING INSOLATION AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE THE AT RISK AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN MAINLY WEST
OF THE RIM IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA
ALREADY SHIFTING EAST TODAY...AND WILL QUICKLY ESTABLISH A MORE
FAMILIAR SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   THU     FRI        TDY TON   THU   FRI
FLAGSTAFF        078/057 076/057 078/057      050 040 050 040 050 050
WINSLOW          093/066 092/065 093/066      030 030 040 040 030 030
PRESCOTT         087/064 086/064 089/064      040 040 040 040 040 040
PAGE             096/076 095/075 096/075      030 030 030 030 030 030
WINDOW ROCK      085/058 084/057 085/057      040 040 040 030 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 091/065 090/064 091/064      030 030 040 040 030 030
COTTONWOOD       096/071 095/071 098/071      030 040 030 030 030 030
GRAND CANYON     081/058 079/058 081/058      040 040 040 040 040 040
GREER            076/053 074/053 076/053      050 040 050 040 050 050
HEBER            081/053 079/053 081/053      050 040 050 040 050 050
JACOB LAKE       076/057 074/057 076/057      040 040 040 040 040 040
NAVAJO N.M.      082/055 081/054 082/054      040 040 040 040 040 040
PAYSON           091/060 090/060 093/060      030 040 030 030 030 030
SEDONA           094/070 093/070 096/070      040 040 040 040 040 030
SELIGMAN         090/063 089/063 092/063      040 040 040 040 040 040
SHOW LOW         084/060 082/060 084/060      050 040 050 050 050 050
ST. JOHNS        090/060 089/059 090/060      040 040 050 050 040 040
WUPATKI N.M.     095/069 094/068 095/069      030 040 040 040 030 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-310200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST WED JUL 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE STATE TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND POINTS WEST IN NORTHERN
GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT
AROUND 20 MPH TODAY...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS
MULTIPLE STORMS FORM OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

MOSTLY SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL.

DUE TO THE FREQUENCY OF RAIN EVENTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS MODERATE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...INSTEAD OF THE EAST.

THIS DIRECTION WILL FAVOR MORE OF THE RIM COUNTRY NORTH TO THE GRAND
CANYON...WITH LESS ACTIVITY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING STILL
REMAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.