Flash Flood in Arizona, July 20, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE DAILY PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MOIST PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED OVER HIGH TERRAIN
WITH MAINLY DRY OUTFLOWS PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
STILL THINK SOME RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS...BUT STILL WELL INTO
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH CLEARING TO GET A SUNNY START MONDAY. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING A DECENT WAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE ZONES
HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER POPS. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND
GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW STAY IN PLACE AFTER MONDAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MODERATE
GRADE MONSOON FORECAST THROUGH DAY SEVEN. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON MON   TUE     WED        TON MON   TUE     WED
FLAGSTAFF        058/083 057/082 055/082      030 050 040 040 030 040
WINSLOW          068/094 066/091 065/091      020 020 030 020 020 020
PRESCOTT         065/092 068/090 066/090      040 030 040 030 030 030
PAGE             078/096 075/094 075/092      020 020 030 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK      060/086 058/084 056/085      030 050 040 040 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 070/092 068/090 066/091      020 030 030 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD       073/103 076/101 074/101      030 030 040 030 030 030
GRAND CANYON     057/085 056/084 054/084      030 040 030 030 030 030
GREER            054/079 053/078 051/078      030 050 040 040 030 040
HEBER            059/088 058/087 056/087      030 050 040 040 030 040
JACOB LAKE       058/081 057/080 055/080      030 040 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M.      064/086 062/084 060/085      030 040 040 030 030 030
PAYSON           066/097 069/095 067/095      040 030 050 040 030 040
SEDONA           071/101 074/099 072/099      030 030 040 030 030 030
SELIGMAN         058/095 061/093 059/093      040 030 040 030 030 030
SHOW LOW         066/089 065/088 063/088      030 050 040 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS        063/088 061/085 060/085      030 040 040 030 030 030
WUPATKI N.M.     071/096 069/093 068/093      020 020 030 020 020 020

AZZ004>018-037>040-210200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FIRST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY BEFORE
10 AM MST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE
OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES WHERE
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

THE BEST THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.