Damaging Winds in Arizona, July 12 to 14, 2003

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
200 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2003

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS TOMORROW. IT WILL ALSO SLIGHTLY
REDUCE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH FURTHER
INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS
GRIP ON THE SOUTHWEST. LOOK FOR A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE HIGH CENTER TOO FAR EAST. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER IS CLOSER TO PARKER...NEAR THE AZ/CA
BORDER. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE FROM THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM
TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE HIGH POSITIONED AS IT IS...STORM
MOVEMENT OVER THE WESTERN RIM WILL BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND
STORM MOVEMENT OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY. A BIT OF SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TOMORROW SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE HIGH SLOWLY
BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY...THE DOOR OPENS FOR A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY MOVEMENT AND SHRINK LATITUDINALLY IN THE
PROCESS. THESE...IN COMBINATION...SHOULD ALLOW RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO WASH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA PROVIDING A SUITABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWARD

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        054/089 053/088 051/087      010 010 010 020 010 020
WINSLOW          058/101 059/100 061/101      010 000 000 010 010 010
PRESCOTT         062/098 062/097 064/096      010 000 000 010 010 010
PAGE             076/105 075/103 074/103      000 000 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      047/096 048/095 051/094      000 000 000 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 057/102 058/101 061/100      000 000 000 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD       070/109 070/108 072/107      010 000 000 010 010 010
GRAND CANYON     053/091 052/090 050/089      020 010 010 010 010 020
GREER            050/085 049/084 047/083      010 010 010 020 010 020
HEBER            055/094 054/093 052/092      010 010 010 020 010 020
JACOB LAKE       054/087 053/086 051/085      000 000 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      051/096 052/095 055/094      000 000 000 000 000 000
PAYSON           063/103 063/102 065/101      020 010 010 010 010 010
SEDONA           068/107 068/106 070/105      010 010 010 010 010 010
SELIGMAN         055/101 055/100 057/099      010 000 000 010 010 010
SHOW LOW         062/095 061/094 059/093      010 010 010 010 010 010
ST. JOHNS        053/095 054/094 056/093      010 000 000 010 010 010
WUPATKI N.M.     061/103 062/102 064/101      010 000 000 010 010 010

AZZ004>018-037>040-130200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT JUL 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE
GREATEST HAZARD BEING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS EXCEEDING 58 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DISPLACES THE GREATEST MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ONCE MORE
FOR INCREASED CONVECTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.