Arizona, 2003Heavy Rain in Arizona, February 12 to 14, 2003
February 12 to 14, 2003 · NWS PSR · 1 event in 1 county or zone
1 heavy rain, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 10:25 AM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 12, 10:25 AM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-122345-
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1025 AM MST WED FEB 12 2003
.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME...RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN
AND A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
THE RULE WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO THURSDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND GIVES DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW STILL CENTERED OFFSHORE WEST OF LOS ANGELES BUT STRONG JET
IS BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE CORE OF
STRONGEST WINDS JUST WEST OF BAJA MEXICO. 12Z PLOT DATA SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE PLUME OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A BIG DROP
OFF EASTWARD. RAOBS AT NKX...1Y7 AND DRA HAVE IMPRESSIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 500 MB.
PROFILES ARE STILL WARM AS WELL. NOT MUCH CAPE AT ALL AS OF 12Z.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT KIND OF MOISTURE CONTENT...IT WONT TAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CUMULATIVE RAINFALL.
12Z ETA AND GFS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM. ONE KEY DIFFERENCE IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE JET STREAM. THE
GFS TRACKS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MAIN JET WELL NORTH OF THE MEXICAN
BORDER DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ETA TENDS KEEP IT JUST SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...ALTHOUGH BOTH OF THEM EJECT IMPULSES/JETLETS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THE GFS IS ALSO A
BIT DEEPER. WITH MORE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS THE GFS ALSO IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...MAINLY FOR THE ARIZONA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE IT HAS MORE PERSISTENT VERTICAL
MOTIONS FOR THAT AREA THAN IT DOES FOR THE CALIFORNIA PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY POWERFUL VORT MAXES MOVING
THROUGH BUT INSTEAD SEVERAL MODEST ONES. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS HAS
AN EDGE IN THE INITIALIZATION OF THE JET...GIVEN PLOT AND SATELLITE
DATA.
MAIN ISSUE TO DEAL WITH IS RAINFALL AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS
ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO MERIT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANYWHERE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA IS PROBABLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS MERITED. OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES.
.PSR...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 12, 6:00 AM MST, 8 hours before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-130100-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST WED FEB 12 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SEE ZONE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY
MORNING AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. SEE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.
Heavy Rain, Maricopa
- When
- February 12, 2:00 PM MST to February 14, 5:00 AM MST
- Where
- Maricopa County, Countywide
- Reported by
- AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
- Coordinates
- 33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A large area of low pressure developed over the sub-tropics and moved northward . The relatively warm system moved slowly, and disturbances embedded within the southerly flow produced significant rains. Heavy rainfall spread across most of Maricopa County, leaving some streets flooded, and many washes running. The heaviest amounts were in the Northwest valley, where many gages had between 3 and 4 inches of rain. One automatic gage near the White Tank mountains picked up 4.13 inches for its storm total.
- Heavy Rain
- Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- High Wind in Ohio, February 12, 2003$1.3 million · 55 kt wind · 6 events
- Heavy Snow in New York, February 12 to 13, 2003$250,000 · 4 events
- High Wind in Pennsylvania, February 12, 2003$85,000 · 53 kt wind · 2 events
- Heavy Snow in New York, February 12, 2003$60,000 · 3 events
- Strong Wind in New Jersey, February 12, 2003$3,000 · 16 events
- Strong Wind in Pennsylvania, February 12, 2003$1,000 · 10 events
- Winter Weather in Colorado, February 12 to 14, 20037 events
- Strong Wind in Maryland, February 12, 2003$1,000 · 5 events
- Winter Weather in Maine, February 12, 20035 events
- Strong Wind in Delaware, February 12, 2003$1,000 · 4 events
- Flooding in California, February 12, 20033 events
- High Wind in Ohio, February 12, 2003$1,000 · 55 kt wind · 1 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5342543.