1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 2:45 AM MST, 9 hours 35 minutes earlier.
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST WED AUG 27 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...WHILE A MOIST PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
.DISCUSSION...COMPUTER PROBLEMS AT NCEP HAVE RESULTED IN MISSING
MODEL AND MOS DATA...SO ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND GRIDS
FOR THIS PACKAGE.
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF NRN AZ.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NRN AZ THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MUCH OF NRN AZ. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD
FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIF TODAY RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH AT FGZ THIS MORNING PER GPSMET DATA. THIS VALUE IS
IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE. EXPECT THE PATTERN ON THURSDAY TO BE SIMILAR
BUT WITH THE FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST A BIT OF
DRYING WILL START TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN ZONES. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING WESTERLIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BY FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING S/W TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NRN ZONES
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THIS REGION SO THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI OVER THE NRN ZONES. FARTHER SOUTH...SHEAR IS
GREATLY REDUCED BUT MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH SO THAT HEAVY PCPN IS MORE
LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
.EXTENDED...WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
AZ ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO THAT CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD DECREASE...
AND STORMS LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. LATE ON
SUNDAY...A WEST COAST TROUGH SETS UP AND WINDS BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO
THE SW AND S WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY. DB
.FGZ...FFA YAVAPAI/COCONINO/GILA COUNTIES 10 AM UNTIL 11 PM.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON THU FRI TDY TON THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 074/052 075/051 077/050 060 060 040 040 030 030
WINSLOW 084/062 086/061 088/060 050 050 030 030 020 020
PRESCOTT 079/062 080/061 082/060 060 060 040 040 030 030
PAGE 090/073 088/072 090/071 030 030 020 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 080/053 078/053 080/051 040 040 030 030 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 086/061 084/061 086/059 030 040 020 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD 090/070 091/069 093/068 060 060 040 040 030 030
GRAND CANYON 075/052 076/051 078/050 050 050 030 030 030 030
GREER 069/049 070/048 072/047 060 060 050 050 040 040
HEBER 079/054 080/053 082/052 060 060 050 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE 072/052 073/051 075/050 040 040 030 030 020 020
NAVAJO N.M. 080/058 078/058 080/056 040 040 030 030 020 020
PAYSON 083/063 084/062 086/061 060 060 030 030 030 030
SEDONA 087/068 088/067 090/066 060 060 040 040 030 030
SELIGMAN 082/061 083/060 085/059 050 060 030 030 020 020
SHOW LOW 079/060 080/059 082/058 050 050 040 040 040 040
ST. JOHNS 079/057 081/056 083/055 040 040 030 030 020 020
WUPATKI N.M. 086/063 088/062 090/061 050 050 030 030 020 020AZZ004>018-037>040-270200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1020 AM MST WED AUG 27 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN GILA...YAVAPAI...AND COCONINO COUNTIES TODAY UNTIL 11 PM MST... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED TO INCLUDE NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM MST... A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA BY LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE SURROUNDING VALLEY AREAS. NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY...HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE STRONGER OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BY THE WEEKEND. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN MAY WILL MEAN THAT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain in Prescott caused flooding in area creeks. A weather spotter reported 2.30 inches of rain in 25 minutes. All crossings over Granite Creek were closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5374371.