Flood in Alaska, January 3 to 8, 2003

Name: Flood in Alaska, January 3 to 8, 2003
Start: 2003-01-03T12:30
End: 2003-01-08T16:00
Location: Alaska

January 3 to 8, 2003 · NWS AFG · 1 event in 1 county or zone

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.

Ice Jam Flooding occurred in the Salcha Area along Piledriver Slough. High water made approximately 30 residences inaccessible and closed portions of the Old Richardson Highway, with over 2 feet of water crossing a section of that road on the afternoon of the 4th. The exact cause of the flooding is uncertain, but an unusually warm October and November delayed the freeze-up of the Tanana River. Late in December an ice jam probably formed on the main channel of the Tanana River, thus causing water to back up into Piledriver Slough off the Tanana River. Surface and ground water levels rose during the final days of 2002 and through January 2nd; but by January 3rd, overland flow had surrounded residences as noted above. During the event at least one home experienced water in the basement.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 4:00 AM AST, 8 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 4:00 AM AST, 8 hours 30 minutes before

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 AM AST FRI JAN 3 2003

CIRCULATION ABOUT 971 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT PUSHING WARMISH FRONT
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...WHILE POINTS NORTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S BELOW
WITH THE USUAL ALLOWANCE FOR INVERSIONS.

A 996 MB LOW NORTH OF POINT BARROW IS USHERING COLDER AIR DOWN THE WEST
COAST...AND EXPECT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES TO BECOME A REGULAR FEATURE FOR
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MAY PUSH INTO WARNINGS AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN.

ALOFT...LONG WAVE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CHUKCHI SEA TO SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE PRIBILOFS WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALOFT
ALONG A GALENA-WHITEHORSE AXIS. SET-UP PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR WITH SOME DYNAMIC MUSCLE.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC STORY FOR NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG SOUTH ON SAT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
BERING SEA AND KICK ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND...ESCORTING SAND POINT LOW TO NEAR
DENALI SAT AFTERNOON AND TO THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY
SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WILL SMEAR SNOW GENERALLY WEST OF A
TANANA-LONELY LINE...THE REAL HEADLINE WILL BE SPEEDY FLOW AND COLDER
AIR DRAGGED SOUTHWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTH.

NORTH SLOPE...SHORTWAVES PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SLOPE WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE LOW NEAR DEMARCATION POINT ON SATURDAY...TO MAINTAIN ONSHORE
NORTH WINDS ALONG ARCTIC COAST...AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA
COAST. SET UP WILL PRODUCE REGULAR ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME
EXTNDED PERIODS OF SNOW ON SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON THE BEAUFORT COAST
LATE SATURDAY FOR POSSIBLE BLOWING SNOW AND LATE WEEKEND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.  WILL WATCH THIS ONE CAREFULLY.

WEST COAST...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW PRODUCING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT CAPE ROMANZOF NOW. AS SAND POINT LOW MOVES NORTH TO
DILLINGHAM ON FRIDAY...EXPECT COLD AIR FUNNELING SOUTHWARD TO DROP
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SNOW.
TRACK OF LOW WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT FOR NOW
SNOW WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF A YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO NOME LINE FOR
FRIDAY...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
EAST OF A SHSIHMAREF TO KIVALINA LINE. WIND SPEEDS WITH SNOW HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...AND WATCHES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WILL GO OUT WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE FOR ZONES 207/210/211/213.
ZONES 210/211 WILL BE MAINLY FOR CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TOPKOK. FOR
MARINERS...BUSY NIGHT AT THE FLAG LOCKER...SCA/BWA PENNANTS GO TO GALE
WARNINGS FOR AREAS 9B/10B. SCA PENNANT REMAINS FOR AREA 14 MAINLY FOR
ROUGH SEAS.

INTERIOR...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH COLD AIR PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
WEST COAST. FOR FRIDAY...HEAVIEST SNOW...ON THE ORDER OF TO 2 TO 4
INCHES...WILL FALL OVER THE YUKON VALLEY FROM ANVIK TO GALENA. SNOW WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS AND KOBUK/NOATAK VALLEY
SATURDAY. AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHTER OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH ALL BUT THE
CANADIAN BORDER COUNTRY RECEIVING A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

MEDIUM RANGE...BY MIDWEEK...GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME FORM OF RIDGING
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND SOME FORM OF TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING SEA. MRF MOST AGGRESSIVE FORMING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS
WHILE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCY IN
DETAILS...GENERAL STORY SETS UP WARMISH PENETRATION OF WESTERN
INTERIOR...A POSSIBLE CHINOOK THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE...AND SPEEDY
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

ECMWF BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND MAINTAINING
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA...BRITISH COLLEAGUES AT UKMET ANCHORING
BERING SEA TROUGH WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT NEAR POINT BARROW...AND MRF
FORMING TIGHT CLOSED LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 214
         WINTER STORM WATCH ZONES 207/210/211/213 (BLIZZARDS
           AND WIND CHILLS STARTING FRI NIGHT)
MARINE...GALE WARNING AREA 9B/10B
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA 14
         BRISK WIND ADVISORY AREAS 9A/10A/11A-WEST/11B
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREAS 14/9B

TS JAN 03

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Deltana and Tanana

When: January 3, 12:30 PM AST to January 8, 4:00 PM AST
Where: Deltana and Tanana forecast zone
Reported by: EMERGENCY MANAGER

What these are

Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, January 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5338233.