High Wind in Alaska, January 17 to 18, 2003

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 AM AST FRI JAN 17 2003

1042 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWEST
ACROSS BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH COAST OF ALASKA TO WRANGEL ISLAND. TO THE
SOUTH...A PAIR OF 978 MB LOWS...ONE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK
WITH THE OTHER ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK. TIGHT RIDGE POKING WESTWARD
FROM YUKON TERRITORY HIGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS ENHANCING THE
TANANA VALLEY JET TO PRODUCE ADVISORY WINDS FOR ZONE 223 OVERNIGHT. IR
SATELLITE SHOWING STATE SKIES CLEAR NORTH OF A NORTHWAY-EMMONAK
LINE...WITH FOG AND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND ON THE
NORTH SLOPE...AND SOME LOW STRATUS IN THE BROOKS RANGE VALLEYS. NOME AND
FAIRBANKS NEXRAD ESSENTIALLY CLEAR.

ALOFT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TO BUBBLE HIGH NEAR
POINT BARROW WITH CONVOLUTED TROUGH FROM KAMCHATKA TO CLOSED LOW
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND. PATTERN PUTS TIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...WITH TIGHT SHORTWAVE NOW ARRIVING OVER THE SOUTH
COAST SUPPORTING KODIAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.

MODELS...REASONABLY CONSISTENT TAKING KODIAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY FRIDAY...TO NUNIVAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO BERING STRAIT
SATURDAY...AND SPONSORING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ON THE SAME TRACK.
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER A RIDGE...CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NORTH SLOPE...SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY THE
WEEKEND WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST PERSISTENT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG CANADIAN BORDER TO INCREASE EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WINDS MAY BE AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FROM BARROW WESTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES...WITH PESKY
STRATUS...FOG...AND SHALLOW FLURRY DROPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUAL TEMPERATURE FALLS AS EAST WINDS TAP COLDER
AIR OVER THE MACKENZIE DELTA. FOR MARINERS...WILL HOIST BRISK WIND
ADVISORIES FOR AREA 11A AS WINDS PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT GOING INTO
SATURDAY.

WEST COAST...KODIAK SURFACE LOW APPROACHING NUNIVAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON
VALLEY...WITH SOME UPSLOPE AUGMENTATION ON THE SOUTHEAST FACES OF THE
NULATO HILLS. LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTON SOUND INTO
KOTZEBUE SOUND ON SATURDAY...AND FROM BERING STRAIT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI
SEA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW FILLS UP. KEY FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. AM LEANING TOWARDS FALLING
SNOW INSUFFICIENT TO DROP VISIBILITIES TO BLIZZARD CRITERIA...AND UNEASY
THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCHES/WARNINGS
FOR RIGHT NOW. WINDS WILL BE THE ISSUE...WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP OVER
THE YUKON DELTA...AND ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 214 WITH THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. GAP FLOW INTO EASTERN NORTON SOUND WILL MAINTAIN WIND
ADVISORY FRIDAY FOR ZONE 212...AND WILL WATCH GOLOVIN CAREFULLY IN ZONE
211 FOR ZIPPY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND ACTION WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE LOW TO BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES ALL FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THIS HEAT WAVE IN
SIGHT. FOR MARINERS...GALE STARTING TO DIE DOWN IN AREA 14 AS KODIAK LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SOME ROUGH SEAS FOR BOTH AREAS 14 AND 9B. WILL
MAINTAIN BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTON SOUND...AND FOR AREA 10B AROUND
THE CAPES.

INTERIOR...RIDGE SOUTH OF ALASKA RANGE AUGMENTING TANANA VALLEY
JET...WITH WINDS AT DELTA JUNCTION APPROACHING ADVISORY SPEEDS RIGHT
NOW...AND WILL DOWNGRADE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING FOR FRIDAY TO A
CONTINUATION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INSTEAD. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE CHINOOK FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR...AND WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE
SUPPORT...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE ZONE 219/220 UPLANDS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TO THE WEST...LIGHT SNOW WORKING INTO THE
LOWER YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT...GENERALLY WEST OF AN ANVIK TO HUSLIA LINE
ON SATURDAY...AND WEST OF A KOYUK TO AMBLER LINE ON SAT NIGHT. AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE REGIME...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW CANT TAP COLD AIR SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.

MEDIUM RANGE...VARIATIONS ON A THEME...MAINTAINING MONSTER RIDGE ALOFT
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT DIFFERING IN DETAILS ON HANDLING ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.  ECMWF AND
UKMET MAINTAIN PATTERN SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE...WHERE BULK
OF ENERGY REMAINS OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND IS ZONALLY ORIENTED ALONG 50
N. MRF/AVN FORM CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER SHEMYA...AND PUSH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING. NET EFFECT IS AVN/MRF PUTTING A 974 MB
LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING FOR A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE WEST COAST
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE EUROPEAN AND BRITISH COLLEAGUES HOLDING
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED ZIPPY WINDS...SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND OUT OF
HARMS WAY. EMCWF ALSO DROPS SHORTWAVE FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...TO INTRODUCE SOME CLOUD
COMPLICATIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR FOR EARLY INTHE WORK WEEK. WITH
ECMWF GENERALLY PERFORMING BETTER...BUT NO MODEL IMPRESSING ANYONE WITH
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...WILL SIDE WITH OUR EUROPEAN FRIENDS THIS ROUND
AND WATCH FUTURE RUNS CAREFULLY.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY: ZONES 211/212/214
MARINE...GALE WARNING: AREA 14
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING: AREAS 14/9B
         SMALL CRAFT/BRISK WIND ADVISORY: AREAS 9A/9B/10B/11A

TS JAN 03