Blizzard in Alaska, February 24 to 27, 2003

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM AST MON FEB 24 2003

ALASKA SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT CAME IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC LAST NIGHT NOW SHREDDED INTO BANDS OVER THE ALASKA
INTERIOR. THIS SYSTEM CAUSED WINDS OVER THE BERING STRAIT REGION TO
PICK UP LAST NIGHT. THOUGH THESE WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOME EARLY THIS
EVENING, BOTH THE ETA AND AVIATION MODELS FORECAST THE PARENT LOW (LOW
#1) TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE WATERS EAST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND TONIGHT...A DEVELOPMENT THAT SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS UP
TONIGHT.

THE NEXT LOW (LOW #2) WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE 3 WEATHER SYSTEMS,
MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
GALES TO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, AND TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND & AREA 11A ON WEDNESDAY. THE ETA AND AVIATION FORECASTS
ARE VERY CLOSE ON THIS.

ALOFT, THE RIDGE OVER WEST CANADA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS
FORECAST TO HOLD, WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER THE
ALASKA MAINLAND. THE TIMING OF SUCH IMPULSES IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN MORE
THAN 24 HOURS OUT, SO THE FORECASTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
SOMEWHAT NON-SPECIFIC ON TIMING.

THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY ALOFT IS UP OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, AND FORECAST BY THE AVIATION AND ETA MODELS TO REMAIN THERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP IN THE PRODUCTION OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE BROOKS, PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST, AND OVER THE ARCTIC
SLOPE.

IN THE ARCTIC, CLOUDS AND EAST WIND WILL INCREASE, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
ADDED TO THE WIND WILL PRODUCE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD COME UP SOME.

ON THE WEST COAST, SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE NORTON SOUND REGION TO
KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE KOBUK VALLEY TUESDAY. BRISK WINDS OVER THE COAST
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP
JUST A LITTLE.

IN THE INTERIOR, A WEAK, FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL BRING A
LITTLE SNOW FROM THE WEST TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TUESDAY. THE NEXT OUTBREAK OF SNOW SHOULD BE ON THURSDAY, IN
THE WAKE OF LOW #2. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. LOW #2 LOOKS GOOD FOR BRISK SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE MID RANGE, THE ECMF AND MRF FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR, BOTH SHOWING
A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND WEST
CANADA...AND A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY
THURSDAY. THE MRF GOES ON TO FORECAST ANOTHER BIG SHORT WAVE AND INFLUX
OF MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
O.K. WITH RESPECT TO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY, BUT NOT REAL CREDIBLE THIS
FAR AWAY IN TIME. ALSO, THE MRF LAST WEEK WAS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT
COLD OUTBREAKS LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH NOW APPEAR UNLIKELY.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
MARINE. GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AREA 14 WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND GALE 9B. BRISK WIND REST OF AREA 14, AREA 10B AND AREA 11A WEST
OF ICY CAPE.
PUBLIC. BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 213. WIND ADVISORY ZONE 201 SOUTH OF
ICY CAPE. WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONES 203-204.

TF FEB 03