Blizzard in Alaska, February 11, 2003

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 AM AST TUE FEB 11 2003

THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
MAKING A VERY SLOW RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL REGIME. THE VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THAT HAS BROUGHT US SEVERAL DAYS OF
VERY WARM TEMPS IS MAKING A SLOW RETREAT TO TO SOUTHEAST AS COLDER AIR
PRESSES SLOWLY SE-WARD ACROSS THE STATE. A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS MOVING NE-WARD ACROSS THE STATE CONTINUES TO HOLD BACK THE
PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SE-WARD. THESE LOW CENTERS ALSO ARE
BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
THE HIGH ARCTIC IS THE SOURCE OF THE COLDER AIR. THIS HIGH CENTER IS
ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE E-LY WINDS OVER THE ARCTIC ZONES. MOST OF THE
WEST COAST ZONES ARE NOW IN THE COLDER AIR WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS
OR LOWER BEING REPORTED UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD N-WARD FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE 500 MB STEERING FLOW BECOMING MUCH MORE N-LY OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AND HIGH ARCTIC REGIONS THEN IT IS NOW. THIS N-LY FLOW
WILL HELP PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH THAT IS NOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC
SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO OUR ARCTIC COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
SLOW MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE COLDER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO END THE RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THREAT UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT OR
EVEN WED MORNING. THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL ALSO
PUSH THE E-LY WINDS THAT ARE NOW AFFECTING THE ARCTIC COAST SOUTHWARD
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. THE STRONGEST E-LY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SET UP
OVER THE NOATAK VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU. A VERY SLOW
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY SE-WARD ACROSS THE STATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST FRI BEFORE
THERE IS ANY CHANCE AT ALL OF SEEING MUCH BLUE SKY ACROSS THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE NORMAL WEATHER
REGION WILL BE COMPLETE BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE MAIN PACIFIC JET IS
PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND AIMS ITSELF TOWARD CALIFORNIA INSTEAD OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINATE SURFACE
FEATURE OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA WITH NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FINALLY IN PLACE.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
.PUBLIC...NONE
.MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 14 TODAY/TONIGHT. BWA/SCA 14, 9B, AND
10B TODAY/TONIGHT.

MP FEB 03