Blizzard in Alaska, December 3, 2003

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
900 PM AST TUE DEC 2 2003

.DISCUSSION...STRONG 970 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 53N 155W IS BRINGING
ROUGH WEATHER INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS EVENING. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS A
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS LOW FORMS NEAR 55N 150W WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN RAPIDLY BECOMES THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES EASTWARD.

THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS SLAMMING INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND
BRINGING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN END AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO ALL
RAIN AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KODIAK IS LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY
PLACE IN THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST OFFICE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THAT
WILL GET RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN COOK INLET AND CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW IN
THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THERE IS A HEAVY SNOW WATCH OUT FOR
TOMORROW FOR ZONE 121 SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH.

STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE 181. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 185
AND DUTCH HARBOR HAS RECORDED GUSTS OF 80 MPH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW NEAR THE GULF OF
ALASKA MOVES EASTWARD.

ETA AND GFS MODELS SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME PATTERN FOR THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS LOW. THE GFS IS 6 TO 10 MB STRONGER IN CENTRAL
PRESSURE...ESPECIALLY FROM 42 HOURS AND BEYOND. GFS PROBABLY MORE
CORRECT ON PRESSURE.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185.
         HEAVY SNOW WATCH 121.
MARINE...GALE 2B 3AB 4 5A 8 15.
         STORM 3C 5B 6AB 12A 12A1 12B 13.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 2B 2B1 2C4 3AC 4 5B 6AB 8 15.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ DEC 03