Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, December 2 to 3, 2003

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
930 PM AST MON DEC 1 2003

.DISCUSSION...
ITS A REALLY BIG CHANGE FROM LAST YEAR TO HAVE A PERSISTENT MAJOR
UPPER LOW - IN THIS CASE THE ANCHOR - OVER ALASKA. THE AIR IS SOOOO
MUCH COLDER. YOU CAN CALL THIS A SIX WAVE PATTERN NOW WITH A MAJOR
UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE EAST OF 152W. THIS SUPPORTS A NASTY LOOKING LOW
THAT WAS NEAR BUOY 46184 AT 00Z AROUND 980 MB WHICH IS GIVING A LOT
OF WIND TO THE PANHANDLE. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE OF RESIDUAL SURFACE
LOWS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE EASTERN
BRANCH OF THE JET AT 250 MB IS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN
GULF FOR SUPPORT. A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 160W INTO THE INTERIOR IS
CAUSING MORE OFSHORE WIND THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH SOME LOW WIND
CHILL. THE STORM IN THE BERING SEA WAS DOWN TO 972 MB AT 00Z NEAR
PASY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ITS OWN CLOSED COLD UPPER LOW ALOFT FOR SUPPORT
WITH A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 46072 AT 00Z AND A WAVE ON THE COLD FRONT
NEAR 46/180. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AT 250 MB THE JET IS WEST ALONG 50N AT 150 KT WHICH
STARTS TO LINE UP THE TRIPLE POINT WITH THE UPPER LEFT QUAD. A
SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE YUKON DELTA AT 00Z BRINGING SOME SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND RADARS NOW SHOW SNOW BANDS ALL OVER WESTERN
COOK INLET ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

THE FIRST PROBLEMS TONIGHT ARE IMMEDIATE. AS THE GULF LOW SLAMS INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR OUR SIDE OF
THE GULF AND COPPER RIVER WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE. VALDEZ WIND WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG BUT MAYBE LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH. SO MUCH FOR
THE FOG AT CORDOVA. NEXT - PAHG RADAR SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS ARE
INCREASING ON THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET AND MAY IMPACT THE KENAI
PENINSULA. THEN WE HAVE THE MONSTER IN THE WEST. A QUICK STUDY OF THE
COLD BAY TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS REVEALS WARMING
THERE THEN RAPID COOLING. AFTER THE LOW DEEPENS INTO THE 960S SOUTH
OF COLD BAY 00Z WED THE WIND REGIME BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR BLIZZARD OR
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE TUE NIGHT. THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION
WILL BE JUST EAST OF UNALASKA/DUTCH HARBOR LATE TUE AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL MAKE THE HIGH WIND WARNING VERIFY THERE. SKELIKOF WILL HOWL WITH
NORTHEASTERLIES TUE EVENING AT LEAST 60 KNOTS AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES
TO 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SHUMIGANS AT 966 MB 06Z WED. THIS IS
WHEN THE STORM SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH
ONSHORE FLOW FOR RAIN BEGINNING AS SNOW AT KODIAK. ALL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE VERY STRONG FOR MOST OF
THE GULF...COOK INLET...AND BRISTOL BAY ALL DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR DAYS THAT AN
EX-TYPHOON WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE NEW 00Z GFS HAS
THE DEEP LOW CENTER RECURVE BACK INTO KAMCHATKA - BUT IT IS THE
OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. THE OLDER ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM AT
950 MB BETWEEN KAMCHATKA AND SHEMYA 12Z THU WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AS
THE GULF STORM SPINS DOWN. CAUTION HAS TO BE APPLIED TO USING THE
MODELS FOR THIS LAST SYSTEM DUE TO THE STORMS TROPICAL ORIGIN.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185. HIGH WIND WATCH 181.
         WIND ADVSRY 171 191 195. WINTER WX ADVSRY 155.
         WIND CHILL ADVSRY 145.
MARINE...STORM 12AB 12A1.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC DEC 03