Flash Flood and Hail in Alabama, July 21 to 22, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
901 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

WELL...WEATHER PATTERN RESEMBLES LATE SPRING, NOT IN THE DOG DAYS
OF SUMMER. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT JUXTAPOSED
FROM A LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE LAND OF LINCOLN AND
ALONG I 70 IN MO...AND THEN INTO THE SUNFLOWER STATE. LARGE MCS
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING SLIGHTLY OVER THE SRN HOOSIER STATE INTO THE
THE NRN BLUEGRASS STATE.

AREA SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND
-10. NO WIND FIELD TO SPEAK OF AND A FAIRLY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL...
ALTHOUGH WBZ IS WITHIN SPECS TO PRODUCE HAIL. PWS AROUND 1.5
INCHES AND H7 TEMPS ARE NOT CAPPED OFF.  RADAR LOOPS HAVE SOME
CONVECTION NEAR THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AND IN NE AR TOO. THE TN
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING WHEREAS THE NATURAL STATE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TOWARDS MEM.

06Z MESOETA SUGGESTS 2 OR 3 ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY.  THE 1ST MAY BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SLIDING SE THIS EVENING...AND 2ND WILL BE WITH A VORT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER WITH THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

CURRENT SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS GOOD WITH WIND THE MAIN THREAT...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LAPSE RATES INCREASE AS THE
DAY MOVES ALONG AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR...THUS WET
MICROBURSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WILL REMOVE THE MORNING WORDING AND AND ADD A NEW ZFP GROUP FOR
CULLMAN...AND INCREASE POPS TO 50% THIS AFTERNOON.

.HUN...NONE.

JDG/KW

ALZ001>010-016-221000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MISSOURI. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SUCH STORMS ARE
DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
AROUND 4 PM TO 10 PM...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A THIRD ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS AGAIN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO NORTH ALABAMA...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KTW/JDG

ALZ001-002-004>007-212000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
122 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
ALABAMA FROM 145 THROUGH 330 PM...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ALABAMA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE ELKMONT...WATERLOO...
ARMORE...AND MOORES MILL. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...1 INCH
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY PASS.

GOLFERS...BOATERS AND ANY OTHER RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE THREATENING SKY TO THE NORTH...AND MOVE INTO SHELTER AS
THE STORM APPROACHES.

WEBER

ALZ001-002-004>007-212000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
122 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2003

...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
ALABAMA FROM 145 PM THROUGH 330 PM...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ALABAMA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED WILL INCLUDE ELKMONT...WATERLOO...
ARMORE...AND MOORES MILL. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...1 INCH
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY PASS.

GOLFERS...BOATERS AND ANY OTHER RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE THREATENING SKY TO THE NORTH...AND MOVE INTO SHELTER AS
THE STORM APPROACHES.

WEBER