Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Alabama, February 15, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW OVER SRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO
TO AROUND PAH THEN SEWD INTO NE AL. WARMER AIR APPEARS TO BE
MAKING PROGRESS INTO ERN SECTION OF THE FA NOW WITH TEMPS AT HSV...
FORT PAYNE...AND GAD JUMPING FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT WARM ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID UPPER 60S TODAY EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER/RAIN.

MAIN UPPER TROF STILL BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUT EXPECT SEVERAL
WEAK S/WVS TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROF DURING THE DAY TODAY. ONE SUCH
WEAK S/WV PASSING THROUGH FORECAST AREA NOW WITH KHTX RADAR
SHOWING PRECIP COVERAGE FILLING BACK IN ACROSS NORTH AL PAST HOUR OR
SO. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWS SHOULD APPROACH 1.50
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM YDAY RANGED FROM 2.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
LAUDERDALE COUNTY...TO AROUND AN INCH EASTWARD ALONG THE TN BORDER...
TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH OVER CULLMAN COUNTY. STILL APPEARS BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN AL...UPPER TROF MOVES EWD...
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET ALIGNS OVER AREA. EXPECT
TOTAL ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. SPC STILL HAS N AL IN SLGT RISK AREA FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW. LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN WITH TIME
AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY.

OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC
LOW AND PREFER ETA TIMING. PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
DURING DAY ON SUNDAY AS SFC LOW WEAKENS AND BEGINS TRANSFERRING TO
EAST COAST. ETA STRONGEST WITH DAMMING DOWN EAST SIDES OF
APPALACHIANS WITH 1048 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
WEDGE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO NW ALABAMA BY THEN BEHIND COLD
FRONT. TEMP FCST QUITE TRICKY...12Z TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE HIGH FOR
SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF AREA...ALTHOUGH AS SFC LOW/TROF WEAKEN OVER
AREA MAY SEE A TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LARGE
TEMP VARIATIONS OVER A SHORT AREA SEEM LIKELY. RAIN SHOULD BE OVER
WITH BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE MAY LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL NOT
MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED EXCEPT TREND WED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
ANOTHER SIG STORM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
HSV 67/54 54/35 44 ++84
MSL 67/51 51/33 44 ++83

.HUN...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

ZIKA

ALZ001>010-016-151930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION...BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  RAIN WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES.  SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...SOME OF IT
LOCALLY HEAVY.  PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE
APPRECIATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MR

ALZ001>010-016-151300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-65 THROUGH 7
AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1/4 OF AN INCH...WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ZIKA

ALZ001>010-016-151500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA...MAINLY WEST OF A HUNTSVILLE TO
GUNTERSVILLE LINE THROUGH 9 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND
1/4 OF AN INCH...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

ZIKA