Hail in Wyoming, July 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 PM MDT SUN JUL 21 2002

COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT FROM OWL CREEK MOUNTAINS
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN NATRONA.  FEW STORMS NORTH OF BOUNDARY ALSO
BUT OVERALL CAP IS STRONGER.  BEST CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
BE IN VICINITY OF FRONT AS IT WORKS IT WAY INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND NATRONA COUNTY BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. WILL
GENERALLY GO ISOLATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH BUT COVERAGE COULD
BE HIGHER IN VICINITY OF FRONT. ON MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
LEE OF THE WIND RIVERS AND ABSAROKAS SHOULD AID IN WIDELY SCATTERED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. MSO-ETA CAPES OF 1000
TO 1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WITH SMALL CIN SHOULD
PROVIDE FOR A FEW BIG CELLS (AS LONG AS ITS NOT TOO COOL TOMORROW).
COOLER SURFACE AND H7 TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BIG HORNS SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTION UP THERE. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE DEFORMATION AXIS FROM CALIFORNIA/OFFSHORE UPPER LOW...BRUSHES
WESTERN WYOMING WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL WEAK LIFT. WILL
INDICATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. THE AVN THEN SPREADS THIS LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE ON TUESDAY (SOME FROM THE SOUTH) FOR SOME HIGH BASED ISOLATED
CONVECTION. AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS NEAR THE 4-CORNERS...THE AVN
INDICATES MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNING BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY (BUT MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS). THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THEN BRUSHES THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PUSHING A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD. WILL INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE FAR NORTH. FOLLOWING
THE MRF (AVN) BEYOND THIS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT ITS A TOUGH CALL BETWEEN THE DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW LURKING NEARBY. THE EUROPEAN SHOWS MORE OF A TROUGH IN
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE HINT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH IDEA OF SOME MONSOONAL RETURNING AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND BUT ITS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

.RIW...NONE.

SKRBAC