Hail in Wisconsin, June 3 to 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
239 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

FOCUS THIS FORECAST SET WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT WAS ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL...GIVING SOME BASIN AVERAGES OVER
TWO INCHES TOTAL. MANY TRIBUTARIES ON THE RISE PROMPTING AT LEAST
ONE FLOOD WARNING.

AT 18Z WELL DEFINED SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. BROAD EAST FLOW CONTINUES
TO KEEP CONDITIONS COOL ACROSS FORECAST AREA. WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS REGION WELL NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES
BASED ON WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING NOTED ON PROFILER NETWORK. SOME
ELEVATED CAPE NOTED AS WELL TO SUPPORT THIS. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BIG QUESTION IS WHEN AND
WHERE WILL NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION SETUP.

SHORT TERM MODELS ALL STRUGGLING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
SOLUTION OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR TONIGHT WITH BETTER DEFINED REGION TO
KEY ON...OTHERWISE WILL STICK CLOSE TO PERSISTANCE IN SHORT TERM.
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED HEADING INTO THIS EVENING
AND FIRE CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT AGAIN OVER IOWA.
BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS MAIN
FORCING AREA SHOULD BE SEVERAL TIERS OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH THAN
LAST NIGHT...FOCUSING MORE ON NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1 AS WELL.
LUCKILY THIS AREA WAS NOT AS HARD HIT LAST NIGHT SO WILL NOT ISSUE
FLOOD WATCH. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN THOUGH IN SOUTHERN ZONE CUTS.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH PUSHES
FORCING WELL SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BRING RAIN THREAT TO AN END BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING
QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

.LSE...NONE.

SHEA