Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, June 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2002

OVERVIEW: TEMPS IN THE 90S...LIGHT WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSIST.  SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHERLY /
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.  THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RW/TRW.  WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEK INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN.  THIS WILL BRING SOME HEAT RELIEF...THOUGH TEMPS WILL NOT
FALL MUCH...AT BEST RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY THURS AND FRI.

SHORT TERM: TEMPERATURES...THIS SHOULD BE THE TOP OF THE PEAK FOR
THE HEAT TODAY AS TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT AND POPS...WHICH
IN TURN SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS FROM SOARING AS THEY HAVE PAST FEW DAYS.
HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO ETA GRIDS...FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FWC/MAV
GUIDANCE.  LOWS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ETA GRIDS...NEAR
FWC...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE.  TEMPS BASED ON PAST FEW
DAYS TRENDS AND CURRENT CONDITIONS INTERPOLATED THROUGH PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION...GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AND THUS EXPECT ISOLATED COVERAGE (20 POPS) TUESDAY WITH
SCATTERED (30 POPS) WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING PEAK INSTABILITY TIMES
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ADDITIONAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RW/TRW ON THURSDAY.  WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.8
TO 2.0...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL PROVIDE POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

EXTENDED:  FAIR MODEL DIFFERENCES...OPAVN AND AVN ENSEMBLES FAIRLY
IN LINE WITH BRINGING SHARP DIGGING LONGWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THURS INTO FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF ACROSS TN
VALLEY INTO GULF COAST.  THIS IN TURN HANGS WEAK SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA WITH AN EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
FRONT.  ECMWF...CMC...UKMET...NOGAPS ALL PERSIST 588 RIDGE KEEPING
US HOT AND FAIRLY DRY.  WOULD PREFER THIS SOLUTION...THOUGH MRF
ENSEMBLES MOS NUMBERS CLOSE TO SUPPORTING MOS GUIDANCE.  WILL KEEP
FCST DRY FOR NOW AND WILL SEE HOW AVN HANDLES SITUATION NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH SHORT TERM WITH FIX ON TEMPS AND
MOISTURE...LOW LONG TERM AS MODEL DIFFERENCES FAIRLY STRONG.

FCSTID = 39

ATL  72 89 72 88 /  10 20 10 30
AHN  71 90 70 90 /  10 20 10 30
GVL  71 89 68 86 /  10 20 10 30
RMG  69 93 69 90 /  10 20 10 30
CSG  74 95 72 93 /  10 20 20 30
MCN  71 95 70 93 /  10 20 20 30

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

JCD

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040345-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
548 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2002

...ISOLATED BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE
GEORGIA THROUGH 9 PM EDT...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY. A WEAK UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS MIDDLE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
BECAUSE OF THE SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR CAUSING BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS IN THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN COLUMBUS...MACON SOUTH TO
PRESTON AND CORDELE...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EASTMAN...TO
DUBLIN...TO LOUISVILLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME IS THROUGH 9 PM EDT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER.

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED AREA HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CUTOFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THIS EVENING...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF CONCERN.
THE FIRST...AND PRIMARY...WILL BE A WESTWARD MOVING SEA BREEZE.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF MIDDLE GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AREAS EAST OF A
LINE FROM EASTMAN...TO DUBLIN...TO LOUISVILLE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.  MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF MAXIMUM
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000...AND LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -5 WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
MIDDLE GEORGIA BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND AMERICUS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL. A LAYER
OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT OR ORGANIZED
DYNAMICS WILL PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEAT AFTER SUNSET.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.

RAB