Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 21, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
515 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE ONGOING RAIN EVENT...AND CHANCES FOR LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

08Z SURFACE ANAL SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MN WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL WI TO JUST NORTH OF GRB. COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WIND AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RADAR INDICATING TOTALS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN SHORT TIME. REPORTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WITH
TREES DOWN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM AREA SPOTTERS.

MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SOME ON THIS RUN WITH AVN SHOWING FASTER...DEEPER
SOLUTION THAN ETA.  ETA IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS...THOUGH
HAS SHOWN SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NEITHER MODEL
DOING WELL WITH QPF FIELDS.  HAVE BASED FORECAST ON ETA AND CURRENT SAT
TRENDS.

DURING THIS PERIOD WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO GIVE WAY AS RIDGE IN THE WEST
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED PUTTING STATE BACK INTO COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY...THROUGH GREEN BAY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. AFTER
PASSAGE OF CURRENT MCS...EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. MID LEVELS PRETTY WELL CAPPED WITH 700 TEMPS AT
10-12C. RRQ OF JET EJECTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TO PROVIDE GOOD LIFT
LATE TODAY...TONIGHT AND WITH PWS AOA 2 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN EVENT
LIKELY. HAVE PUT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN ZONES. ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WITH VERY MOIST AIR OVER CWA AS DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70S PUSHING NORTH THROUGH CWA. SIG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPES NEAR
3K...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER AREA THIS
EVENING.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE PUSHES THROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OVER STATE FOR COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK.

WITH CLOUDS FROM MORNING CONVECTION...HAVE STAYED WITH COOLER ETA TEMPS
PER PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  EXPECT HEAT INDICES AOA 100 IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED.

COORD WITH LSE...MQT...THANKS

.GRB...NONE.

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-211500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 2:00 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN THREAT.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES AT OR AROUND 100 TODAY IN AREAS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARINETTE TO WAUSAU. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE LATER
TODAY WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THIS WARM AND
HUMID AIR.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0455 AM    10 N TRIPOLI              WI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   ONEIDA                         TREES DOWN ON TWO TENTS
                                          NEAR WILLOW FLOWAGE.  NO
                                          INJURIES.  REPORT FROM
                                          PUBLIC.

JKL

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-212030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 100
TO 105...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  IF YOU
HAVE PLANS OUTDOORS TODAY...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.

JKL
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-212030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL...
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES OF 100
TO 105...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  IF YOU
HAVE PLANS OUTDOORS TODAY...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.

JKL
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB