Flash Flooding in West Virginia, July 19, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

FOLLOWING ARE ALL FORECASTER DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE MOST RECENT ON TOP.  THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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343 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

THRU SUN...

LEANING TOWARD...BUT NOT COMPLETELY BUYING...CAT POPS SHOWN FOR
TODAY.  PESKY WEEK OLD UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS TRW BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOWN TO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH WITH SOME KIND OF SFC FROPA
THRU PART OF THE AREA SAT.  ALTHO DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN TO
EXIT...RELUCTANT TO TOTALLY REMOVE TRW CHC EVEN N SAT WITH WEAK SFC
PUSH AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL INSTAB/MOISTURE.

SUNSET SHOULD TAKE CARE OF THINGS SAT NT...GOING DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BLDG IN BY SUN AM.  WEAK RETURN FLO AND INSTAB (NOT MUCH
SFC DRY PUSH AT ALL) SO CONCERNED ABOUT POPS AGAIN BY SUN AFTN MTNS
AND SRN COUNTIES...MORE OR LESS AS PEGGED IN ONGOING PCKG AND IN
AGRMNT WITH ISC.

WOUND UP WITH FWC/MAV BLEND ON POPS FOR THE MOST PART...AND FWC/ETA
BLEND ON HIGHS AND LOWS.  TODAY SHOULD BE COOLEST BECAUSE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNDAY WARMEST BECAUSE OF THE LACK THEREOF.  LOWS LIKE PAST FEW
NIGHTS TONIGHT (WARM)...THEN A LITTLE LOWER SAT NT WITH SOME
CLEARING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.

XTNDD: SUN NGT -->

FRNT PUSHES FAR ENUF S COMBINED WITH WK H5 UPR LVL ANTICYCLONE...
THAT STABLE AIR SHUD MV IN SUN NGT PROVIDING A BREAK FM THE MONOTONY
OF SCT AFTN AND EVNG RT/TRW.  H5 TROF DIGS S MON ALNG WITH A VEERING
LLVL FLO SPELLS MORE MSTR AND INSTABILITY.  WL KEEP CHC POPS MON
THRU WED...BUT WL PLAY UP POPS AND CLDS TUES WITH APPCHNG FRNT.
FCST SNDGS SHOW PWATS HOVERING ARND 1.5 TIL TUES WHEN DEEPER MSTR
WITH FRNT ARRIVES...WHICH SHOOTS PWATS TO NR 2.0 BY 12Z TUES.

243 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2002

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS.  EXTENDING
CHANCE POPS ALL NIGHT...CONCERNED THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE WITH
QUITE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LOTS OF RIPPLES/BOUNDARIES AROUND.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING AT MIN
HEATING...BUT WILL NOT TIME IN ZONES.  STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AROUND WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HELPING UVV VALUES. TOMORROW
NIGHT LOOKS A LOT LIKE TONIGHT AS LAKES FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NORTH OF CWA WITH CONTINUED PW VALUES IN 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO CLOUD/TEMP FIELDS.  THINK FWC IS A BIT
OVERDONE WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AS WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB THROUGH
THE 80S TODAY.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

MODELS INDICATE A FEW FRONTS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.  SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES.  HOWEVER...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A STORM OR TWO JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANYTIME.

CL/JSH

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1005 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2002

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)

GOING GRIDS/ZFP LOOK PRETTY GOOD.  SHRA FORMING ON LEADING EDGE OF
SHORTWAVE RIPPLE OVER ERN KY.  EXPECT REMAINING LOW CLOUD TO LIFT UP
INTO CU DECK.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IN NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR BUT WITH PW VALUES IN THE
1.5-1.8 RANGE...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY...10 KNOTS OR SO FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

ONLY REAL CHANGE TO GRIDS WILL BE TO RAISE QPF FIELDS A BIT
...RECOGNIZING THE ENVIRONMENT.

CL