High Wind in Washington, December 15 to 16, 2002

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2002

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER VERY STRONG SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TODAY
AS IT SWINGS NORTH...JUST NORTH OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE VERY STRONG
FRONT WILL COME ONSHORE EARLY TONIGHT...WITH VERY STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY HEADS SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THOUGH POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR DEEPENING AND FARTHER NORTH MOVEMENT. COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY THEN LINGERS AND DRIFTS SOUTH.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE BOTH IR AND WATER VAPOR CONFIRM STRONG RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING WITH SYSTEM OUT NEAR 45N 133W. MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH 50N 130W AND JUST NORTH OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND EARLY TONIGHT. GFS DROPS CENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 960
MB. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE ABOUT 60 KT ON BOTH
THE GFS AND MESO ETA...WITH 950 MB WINDS AROUND 90 KT ON THE MESO.
WILL UP THE HIGH WIND WARNING AT THE COAST TO INCLUDE 90 MPH
GUSTS...WITH 60 TO 70 MPH COASTAL COMMUNITIES. GFS A BIT FASTER WITH
LANDFALL OF FRONT THAN ETA...WILL HEDGE IN BETWEEN AROUND 06Z.

INLAND WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE EASTERLY GRADIENT
GAINS A BIT OF SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...THOUGH TRACK WILL KEEP BEST
WINDS AWAY. 950 MB MESO WINDS SUGGEST GUSTS COULD REACH 45 MPH IN THE
VALLEYS.

MODELS ARE TAKING NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SOUTH...WHICH PUTS ANY
STRONG WINDS TO OUR SOUTH. POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM STILL PUTS IT IN
A PLACE WHERE IF IT DEVELOPS MORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD RECURVE
NORTH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA LIKE THE SYSTEM THAT SWEPT
THROUGH EUGENE IN FEBRUARY EARLIER THIS YEAR. THIS STILL BEARS
WATCHING.

COOLER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL LIKELY GET SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL STAY WITH STORM WARNING AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY COAST.

.LONG TERM...MODELS BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN INLAND OVER
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT UNSETTLED SHOWERY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TOLLESON

AST ++988  PDX ++988  SLE ++988  EUG ++988

.PQR...HIGH WIND WARNING...TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR THE NORTH
        AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGE...AND FOR THE NORTH AND
        CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
      .STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
      .HIGH SURF ADVISORY...CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-161430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST SUN DEC 15 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST...AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COAST RANGES TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT.

STORM WARNING FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SHOULD UNEXPECTED CONDITIONS ARISE SPOTTERS SHOULD CALL IN AS PER
THEIR SPOTTER CALL IN CRITERIA. REPORTS OF HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE
HELPFUL.