Damaging Winds in Virginia, November 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
330 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

SHORT TERM...
VERY HIGH SHEAR CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TNGT. HELICITY ON
THE IAD SOUNDING WAS CLOSE TO 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW. WL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SVR THREAT
TODAY. VERY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR RGN THRU TONGT.
FRONT WL MOV SLOWLY ACRS FA TODAY CONTINUING SHRAS/TSRAS. SOME
MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AND WILL COMPERMISE BETWEEN SOLNS...DRY
OUT WRN ZONES TONGT  AND EAST LATE TONIGHT. ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS. WITH SUCH STRONG FLOW AND MIXING WL
CONT SCA OVR MARINE AREAS. TUESDAY CAA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON TUESDAY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE BACK ACROSS THE FA WITH A CHC OF SHRAS ONCE AGAIN.

ND

LONG TERM...TUE NGT THRU SUN...

ONLY REAL CHG IN XTND IS TO TAPER BACK ON THE POPS FOR TUE NGT AND
WED. AVN CONTINUES TO ADVRTZ THE LOW DVLPG ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY E OF
ORF..AND THEN TRACK NE. OUR CWA WOULD BE IN A SECTOR OF NRLY
WINDS...AND I FEEL PCPN AMTS WL BE LGT..IF AT ALL. COULD BE A
SITUATION WHERE COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE CST GET THE RAIN AND WE ARE
LEFT DRY. THE NEW MRF RESEMBLES THE AVN. SEE THAT THE FMR POPS ARE
QUITE HIGH FOR WED. THINK THE MDL IS OVERDOING THE PCPN CVRG. HV CUT
BACK ON PCPN LONGEVITY AND POPS. THIS IS ALSO MORE CLOSELY IN LN W/
WHAT OTHER FOS WERE FCSTG.

PRES GRAD FAIRLY TIGHT IN ERN SXNS COULD PRODUCE BRZY CONDITIONS
ALONG BAY WED NGT AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

AFTER LOW PULLS AWAY AREA IS UNDER FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT ZNL FLOW THU
AND FRI. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NGT AM RESERVING JUDGEMENT ON THE FATE
OF THE NEXT UPR TROF/CSTL SFC LOW MRF IS PROJECTING FOR NEXT WKND.
LATER SHIFTS CAN PONDER THAT AS THESE DAYS DRAW NEAR.

WOODY

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SCA IN EFFECT FOR POTOMAC AND BAY.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-111545-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
503 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING FROM CARROLL COUNTY MARYLAND TO
SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA...EASTWARD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AT THIS TIME A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO-PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. AHEAD OF THE LINE THERE ARE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN FAST MOVING...AND CREATED WIND DAMAGE IN THEIR PATH.

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE ACTIVATED THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ABW