Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, July 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

MODELS SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT WHICH COULD MEANDER OVER THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY.  VERY DEEP MOISTR THRU THE PD WITH PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY
COMING UP OUT OF THE MAIN TROF.  PCPL WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 THRU
THE PD...SO WILL GO WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS THAN NORMAL THRU
THURSDAY.   ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS WITH 850 TEMPS HOVERING ARND 16-18C
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL AS WELL.

TRANSITION OCCURS ALOFT LATE IN THE WEEK AS ENERGY PULLS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING BEGINS.  OVERALL ATMOS DRIES OUT...HOWEVER
S/WVS MOVING THRU THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS COULD DROP SOME MCSS DOWN ACROSS THE FA.  WILL MENTION POPS
WITH WAVE FOR SAT...THEN WILL CARRY SILENT 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DRY TUE.

FCSTID =
ROA   69  82  69  81 /  40  60  60  50
LYH   68  82  66  82 /  40  60  60  50
DAN   71  85  69  83 /  40  60  60  50
BLF   65  74  63  74 /  50  60  50  50
LWB   63  75  61  76 /  50  60  50  50
BCB   66  77  64  78 /  40  60  60  50
TNB   64  74  62  74 /  50  60  50  50

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

VAZ044-232100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
324 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING DANVILLE...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL COVERS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE DUMPING RAINFALL AT
A RATE OF 3 INCHES AN HOUR...AND ARE LIKELY CAUSING MINOR ROAD
FLOODING...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 58. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT WESTERN SECTIONS OF
DANVILLE CITY BETWEEN 3:30 AND 4:00 PM. MOTORISTS IN THE CITY SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADS...MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS...AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 4:30 PM.

JJ

VAZ012>014-022>024-232200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA...

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY...AND THEN
WESTWARD INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. ONE OF THESE CLUSTERS EXTENDED
FROM THE LEXINGTON AREA...SOUTH INTO THE GLASGOW AREA. ANOTHER
CLUSTER WAS RIGHT OVER THE ROANOKE AND SALEM AREAS...ANOTHER OVER
RADFORD...AND YET ANOTHER EXTENDED FROM NEAR WYTHEVILLE TO
SPEEDWELL. THESE STORMS ARE DUMPING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...INCLUDING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. IN
ADDITION...THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

IF YOU ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...YOU SHOULD SEEK SAFE
INDOOR SHELTER UNTIL THEY PASS. MOTORISTS IN THE AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND WATER COVERED
ROADS.

JJ