Hail in Virginia, July 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

UPR LOW HEADING EAST THRU CNTRL NC AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION MVG EAST
WITH IT. ONLY ISOLD WEAK CONV BEHIND IT FROM DAYTIME HTG WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AT MID LEVELS SEEN ON WV IMGRY. DEW PT FRONT STILL
IN CNTRL OH THOUGH.  THIS EVE...ANY ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE DYING FAST
WITH SUN...AND WILL KEEP A 20 POP FOR FAR EAST AND SOUTH...BUT NOTHING
WEST AS SUBSIDENCE ALREADY SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY IN THE WEST. FOR
SUNDAY...MDL SNDGS SHOW STRONG CAP AND SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE...DESPITE
LOW LVL MSTR.  WOULD CONSIDER A SLGT CHC POP IN MTNS IF EASTERLY
UPSLOPE LIFT WASNT SO WEAK.  SO FAR THIS SUMMER...A CAP LIKE THIS HAS
BEEN ENUF TO SQUASH THINGS ALTOGETHER.  BY LATE MONDAY SW FLOW BEGINS
TO RETURN IN THE WEST WITH 850 THETA-E RDG SLIDING IN...CAP A BIT
WEAKER TOO. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR MTNS ONLY.

WITH FEWER CLOUDS NEXT FEW DAYS HIGHS SHOULD BE UP A BIT...WILL GO VERY
CLOSE TO LATEST MOS...MAYBE STILL JUST A DEG OR TWO UNDER. LOWS WILL
NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH MORE THAN WHAT THEYVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH SFC DEW PTS REMAINING RATHER HIGH.

FOR EXTENDED...PER COORDINATION AND HPC THINKING GOING WITH LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLN AND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE PUSHING FRONT THRU BY MID WEEK AS
THE AVN/MRF FCST SUGGESTS. FRONT LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP BY THURSDAY
SOMEWHERE NEAR US AND THEN WASH OUT...LIKELY LEAVING LIGHT SW FLOW AND
LOW LVL MSTR. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THRU DAY 7...BUT HIGHEST
ON TUES AND WED AS IT APPROACHES AND STALLS OVER US. TEMPS DOWN A BIT
TOO WITH MORE CLOUDS.

FCSTID = 02
ROA   68  89  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
LYH   66  90  67  88 /  20  10  10  10
DAN   69  91  70  90 /  20  10  10  10
BLF   64  83  64  82 /  10  10  10  30
LWB   60  84  61  82 /  10  10  10  30
BCB   62  85  63  83 /  10  10  10  30
TNB   63  84  63  81 /  20  10  10  30

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

KEIGHTON

VAZ044-202145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS NEAR HURT AT 5 PM WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH AT 25 MPH.
AREAS IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOTLEY.
AFTER 520 PM...PARTS OF THE STORM MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS EAST OF
PITTSVILLE...EASTWARD TO GRETNA.

IF IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER IN DOORS.

NOGUEIRA