Flash Flood in Utah, July 27, 2002

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
305 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2002

A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  FIRST WAVE IS AIDING ANOTHER
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW STORMS
DROPPING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH AN AREA ALONG THE
UINTAH/DAGGETT COUNTY LINE IN NE UTAH DROPPING A RADAR ESTIMATED 4+
INCHES OF RAIN RIGHT OVER HIGHWAY 191.  THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A SECOND
WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH IDAHO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT.  SO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE NEW WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE AROUND TO FIRE A
FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  HAVE WENT
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR NOW. SLOW WARMING TREND IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. JDC

EXTENDED (TUE-SAT)...MOSTLY DRY INITIALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MIDWEEK, HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL INCREASE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK SW MONSOON SIGNATURE. BETTER
CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.  BA

.GJT...NONE.