Damaging Winds in Texas, September 18, 2002

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
245 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

CURRENT...WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES VORT MAX CURRENTLY PUSHING
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
40S. KDYX WSR-88D DATA SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR
MIDLAND ALONG THE DRYLINE.

DAYS 1-3...MODELS INDICATE MAIN THUNDERSTORM DRIVER WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR AREA...18Z MIDLAND SOUNDING CLEARLY SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BASED ON COORDINATION
WITH MAF...WILL SPLIT THE BIG COUNTRY INTO TWO GROUPS WITH THE
EASTERN GROUP HAVING THE BEST POPS. ALSO...WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DOES NOT LOOK AS
GOOD TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AND BEYOND...POPS NIL. NUMBERS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THUS...EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
TOMORROW.

DAYS 4-7...MRF STILL BRINGING ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES STILL DO NOT LOOK GOOD.

THANKS TO MAF FOR COORDINATION INITIATIVE.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 70/80/53/083 4100
SJT 72/85/53/085 3200
JCT 73/85/55/085 1300

.SJT...NONE.

23/HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-182300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG
THIS FEATURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LUBBOCK.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY ANYTIME THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH AND
HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SILVER TO DUDLEY AND ALBANY...INCLUDING THE
ABILENE AREA. ELSEWHERE...GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF
A LINE FROM SONORA TO COLEMAN AND CROSS PLAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WEAKENING STAGES...HOWEVER THEY COULD
STILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTENING...WINDS TO 45
MPH...AND SMALL HAIL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY ON THURSDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE IF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM
DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

27/BRAZZELL