Hail in Texas, September 14, 2002

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
318 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2002

19Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE BIG COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60.

THE AVN MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW PROBLEMS HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE ETA MODEL MORE CLOSELY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY1 INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS PULLS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY DOES CONTINUE
TO EXIST WITH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...
ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL COOLING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE MAIN POSSIBILITY. WITH THE
LARGE DRY SLOT BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP...WILL DROP THE CHANCES OF RAIN SLIGHTLY ALL AREAS FOR TONIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT PUSHING ONLY SLOWLY SOUTH...EXPECT THE FRONT TO
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT BEFORE
CONTINUING SOUTH DURING THE MORNING. THE 310K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
SHOWS OVERRUNNING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
BEFORE SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THE OVERRUNNING BUT THIS COULD
ACTUALLY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH THE
CLOUDY SKIES AND OVERRUNNING ON SUNDAY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE COOLER THAN
THE MET OR FWC GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 80S...CLOSER TO THE MAV IN THE
70S.

EXPECT MID WEEK WARMING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT PUSHING THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY.

ABI 63/75/60/080 7310
SJT 65/78/63/083 5520
JCT 66/78/62/082 4530

.SJT...NONE.

24/23

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-150100-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT....

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT
...WHICH ALONG WITH THE SUNS HEATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE BIG
COUNTRY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR MORE
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

24/HOLGUIN