Flash Flooding in Texas, October 28, 2002

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002

HEAVIER RAINS REMAINED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT MADE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD. THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ONLY RETAINING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. WILL
KEEPS POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE WEST TO CHANCE EAST TONIGHT AND
GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG. DRIER AIR ALOFT/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER/SATURATED SOIL/LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FAVOR AREAS OF FOG
WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG-TERM...WARM FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA AS A DRY COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THINK CHILLY TEMPS WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING THE
CWA.

MARINE...MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE BAYS
AND OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION (AND STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE WARMER/MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WARM FRONTAL AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES..AND PUSHING NORTHWARD.  EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXIT THE NORTHERN WATERS AND PUSH FARTHER INLAND AND NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAYS.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL DIMINISH BEYOND
TONIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK RAPIDLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST..AND UPPER VORT PACKAGE SWINGS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST PULLING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
WEST..AS EVIDENT ON VAPOR IMAGERY.  WEAK COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
WIND FIELDS WED NIGHT/THU WITH A SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT/SAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE
SECONDARY FRONT..BUT THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
IN AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME..HOWEVER TIMING WILL BE ADJUSTED AS THE
FRONT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.  ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING
FRONT WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FOR CONVECTION..AND
WILL FORECAST ISOLATED-SCATTERED BASED ON THE EXPECTED THERMAL
CONTRAST WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FORM A LINE OVER THE MARINE
AREA.

.CRP...NONE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP EB 071/084 071/082 064 32-
VCT EB 070/080 068/080 062 32-
LRD EB 068/081 068/081 064 22-

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TXZ232>234-242>247 UNTIL 01Z.

71/76

TXZ229>234-239>247-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 AM CST MON OCT 28 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...
ARANSAS...CALHOUN...REFUGIO...KLEBERG...NUECES...AND SAN PATRICIO
COUNTIES.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND COUNTIES AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A STORM SYSTEM
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY AS IT WAS DURING
LAST WEEKS EVENTS...BUT THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED ACROSS MOST
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN THIS WATCH.

THE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE STORM SPOTTING PURPOSES IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED FROM
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY...  AND
COOLER AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WILL END THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERTURES OF THE SEASON TO THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...AND NORTH TEXAS MAY EVEN SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PURPURA