Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, May 5, 2002

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 AM CDT SUN MAY 05 2002

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO WRN SECTIONS
OF TX AND OK PNHDLS. QSTNRY WEAK FRONT HAS MIGRATED NORTH TO SWRN KS
AND ERN CO...WHILE A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED DOWNSTATE OVER NCNTRL
TX FROM S OF KABI TO NEAR KLFK. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS SVR POTENTIAL
AND IF EVERYTHING WILL COME TOGETHER TO GENERATE SVR STORMS. EXPECT
DRYLINE TO MEANDER IN WRN ZNS OR PSBLY MOVE TO CNTRL ZNS LATER THIS
AFTN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH LVL CLOUDS MOVG NEWD INTO W
TX COURTESY OF SUBTROPICAL JET. IT APPEARS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
EMBEDDED IN THIS SUBTROPICAL BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IS POISED TO
HEAD INTO SRN/CNTRL PLAINS STATES. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
SMARTLY THIS AFTN GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING. OVERALL UA PATTERN
FEATURES BROAD SRN BRANCH TROF WITH RESULTANT SW FLOW OVER PNHDLS
AND MINOR IMPULSES EJECTING ENE OUT OF SRN CA TROF. GIVEN ABV
SYNOPTIC SETUP...PLAN ON RETAINING MENTION OF SVR CNTRL AND ERN ZNS
WITH HIGHEST POPS E AND LOWEST W TODAY AND TNGT. AGREE WITH SWODY1.

DRYLINE SHOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER E ON MON AND TUE...MAINLY LYING
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF PNHDLS...AND WILL RETAIN THE LOW POPS THAT
AREA BOTH DAYS. SWODY2 PLAUSIBLE FOR MON. APPEARS BY WED THE
DRYLINE WILL BE IN OK AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM KS AND ERN CO. TEMPS COOLER FOR THU THEN REBOUNDING FRI AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH SLIDES EWD WITH RETURN SRLY FLOW ON WRN
PERIPHERY. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS TRYING TO COME TO SOME AGREEMENT ON WRN
US TROF REINFORCEMENT...AND MAY OPT TO INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS FOR AT
LEAST CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS FRI AND SAT. OVERALL...HAVE MAINTAINED
GENERAL THEME OF PREVIOUS PCKG WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ANDRADE

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-052300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ONE-HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES WEST OF HEREFORD TEXAS.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN A NARROW BAND 20
MILES WIDE EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF ELKHART KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO 50
MILES NORTHWEST OF HEREFORD TEXAS.

AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE WAS ORIENTED FROM
DALHART EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO ROSWELL NEW MEXICO. THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. AT UPPER-LEVELS...SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WERE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THESE WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS AND LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COMBINED WITH
CHANGING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

INITIALLY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
EARLY THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THEREFORE...SKYWARN SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM TONIGHT.

CB