Hail and Damaging Winds in Iowa, May 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ADVERSE WX FOR LTR TNGT AND PSBLE EVENTS MON AND
TUE.

MODELS REMAIN WITH YESTERDAYS SCENARIO WITH WSW FLO AND WEAK
IMPULSES RUNNING IN THE FLO ACRS THE ST AND INTERACTING SOMEWHERE
WITH A BOUNDARY.  PIN POINTING MOST FAVORED AREAS OF DVLPMNT AND TO
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINS IS DIFFICULT AS MODELS WITH TIME GO THEIR
SEPERATE WAYS.  AS USUAL AVN MOST AGRESSIVE ON TNGTS S/W IN FLO
COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS.  MONDAY MAYBE MOST RAIN FREE DAY THO MORE
DVLPMNT EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MRNG AND INTO TUESDAY NGT.  BOUNDARIES
MOVG NWRD IE WARM FNTS AND LAID DOWN ONES FROM CONVECTION FUZZ
PICTURE OF WHEN AND WHERE.  THO SOME DVLPMNT THIS AFTN WULD EXPECT
BETTER DVLPMNT LTR THIS EVNEING AND OVRNGT INTO ERY MRNG.  ON MON
WITH NO REAL DISCERNABLE S/W IN FLO DRY AND WARM DAY.  THEN ALL
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING UP NXT S/W TO AID DVLP LT MON
NGT.  THEN LARGE SCALE TROF FM WRN CANADA FINALLY MAKE SIT MOVE ACRS
NRN U.S.  TUE AFNT AND NGT WITH FAIRLY GD CHC OF SVR IN IA TUE AFTN.
HAVE FAVORED SLOWER/DRIER ETA AS THIS MODEL MOST CONSISTENT ON
HALNDING OF UPCOMING SYSTEM.  ETA LEANS INTO DVLPMNT ACRS ENTIRE ST
LTR TNGT WITH GD FORCING AND HINT OF BOUNDARY IN THE AREA UNDER GD
THETA E RIDGE.  REAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY ALL ELEMENTS COME
TOGETHER AS MOISTURE STILL ON WAY AND CAPES WEAK ATTM HWVR EXPECT
FURTHER DESTABLIZATION.  ETA AND STRONGER HINT FROM AVN TUE NGT OF
PSBLE MCS WITH DECENT QPF.  ERY DVLPMNT LKLY SVR THEN EXPECT TURN
INTO RAINERS WITH LTL OR NO SVR.  IN EARLY PERIODS FAVOR HIER FWCS
THEN WITH COOLING TREND IN LTR PDS GUID COMES TOGETHER.

IN EXTENDED ANOTHER MOSTLY UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH LKLY PERIODS OF
RAIN WED AND AGN LT FRI NGT AND SAT/SAT NGT WITH LINGERING SHWRS
SUN.  CANADIAN AND MRF SPT THESE WET PERIODS AS SEVERAL STG
DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACRS THE AREA IN CONTINUED SWRLY FLO WITH GD
MOISTURE IN PLACE ON FRI NGT AND INTO SAT.  GUID TEMPS LOOK GD WITH
SOME MINOR ADJSTMNTS.

.DSM...NONE

FORSTER