Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 13, 2002

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST...

.CURRENT...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FEATURE. THERE ARE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND DRIFT
SOUTH...HOWEVER THE MOST NOTICEABLE DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR WAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ON OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AIDED BY DECENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO LOCATED IN AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE AS NOTED BY MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC.
SATELLITE ALSO INDICATED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA WAS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.TONIGHT...FRONT TO CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL MENTION EVENING
WORDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRD OF FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE MENTION ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL
ALSO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DOWN SOUTH WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AS WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL
UPPER LOW GET FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE MORE
FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...EARLY ON IN THIS PERIOD...BOTH THE CANADIAN
AND U.S. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SHEAR
AXIS/OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THIS THIS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A LITTLE. THE U.S. MODEL SHOWS RIDGING
TRYING TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AS IT DID
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS SOME INDICATIONS OF WANTING TO
HOLD ON TO THE UPPER LOW AND STILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS. THE CANADIAN MODEL
STILL WANTS TO BUILD IN THE RIDGE AND RETURN REGION TO MORE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER. AT THIS TIME THINKING IS TO JUST HOLD OFF ON
ADDING MENTION TO ANYTHING BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND SEE WHAT OTHER RUNS
HAVE TO OFFER.

ABI 067/088/068/088 2112
SJT 069/090/068/089 3223
JCT 071/091/071/092 4323

.SJT...NONE

27/BRAZZELL

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-132330-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT JUL 13 2002

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY COOL FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY..SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...IF ANY...SHOULD BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

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