High Wind in Texas, February 25, 2002

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
140 PM CST MON FEB 25 2002

THE 12Z UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST
AND A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. A SHORTER
WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WY AND WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFY THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE CWFA LAST NIGHT IS
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWFA. AT 18Z
THE DEEPER ARCTIC COLD AIR MASS WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
TX PNHDL. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS WERE IN THE
TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH DIRECTLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. LOW CLODS HAVE FORMED NORTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AND SHOULD
FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWFA AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWFA. THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AMPLIFY. THIS WILL CAUSE A 1040 MB
SFC RIDGE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS WEST TX TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON OFF THE CAP ROCK. WITH
SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE CWFA THE
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS MAY MODIFY ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL INDICES TO
REMAIN NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

ON WED THE DEEP H5 UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WED. THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS AS IF HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIONA      12  29  08  45  17 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA       15  30  09  46  16 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD  19  36  14  53  21 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK     16  34  12  49  19 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS   20  33  15  45  21 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT   23  35  18  47  23 / 0 0 0 0 0

.LUB...NONE

TXZ021>044-261200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST MON FEB 25 2002

...WINTER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO WEST TEXAS...

AFTER A VERY WARM WEEKEND WEST TEXAS IS RETURNING TO WINTER FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. A ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES BY 9 PM ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 20S FROM FRIONA TO CHILDRESS AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL CAUSE
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE ZERO TO 10 DEGREE RANGE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPECT A COLD DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
FROM FRIONA TO TULIA AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.