Tornado and Hail in Texas, December 30, 2002

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
230 PM CST MON DEC 30 2002

FIRST PERIOD POPS IN THE SOUTH WILL DEPEND ON LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUE TIME.  STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
LIFT EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS THERE.  FURTHER SOUTH...ITS THE BATTLE BETWEEN RAPID
DESTABILIZATION AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  PRELIMINARY FEELING IS TO
KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE RADAR NOW SHOWING SOME ECHOES OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWFA. EXPECT MOIST OF THE RAIN TO END OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA
BY MIDNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH GOOD CLEARING IS SHOWING UP ON THE
SATELLITE...CLEARING MAY BE SLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AS MODELS CONCUR
ON THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FEATURE THERE.  WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP.  CLOUDS IN VCT AREA WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING
TEMPS UP OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST.

OTHER THAN CLOUDS DECREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE MORNING...SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A NICE DAY
ONCE THE WINDS CALM DOWN.  NO EXPECTED RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY UPPER SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL NOT COME
BACK IN TIME (COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS THROUGH MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY).  TWO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS DURING THE EXTENDED...ONE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON
SUNDAY MORNING.  NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH EITHER.

PRELIMS...1ST PERIOD POPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
CRP NB 048/067 043/072 046 30000
NGP    053/066 046/070 050
ALI UB 048/071 042/074 046 20000
VCT NB 048/063 038/069 041 5-000
LRD UU 048/070 045/073 045 00000
RKP NB 052/065 044/068 047 40000

MARINE...STG DYNAMICS TO MOVE ACRS THE WATERS THIS EVENING/TNGT.
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ALG THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STG/SVR. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AFTER 04Z. SCA CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AFTER FROPA OWING TO STG
PREVAILING WIND. WIND WL DECREASE BELOW SCA BY LATE TUES AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE APPROACHES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACRS THE REGION LATE WED/EARLY THU...RESULTING IN ANOTHER FROPA
THEN SCA CONDITONS. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE PCPN ALG THIS FRONT DUE
TO LIMITED MSTR. MOMENTUM TO DECREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRI.

.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.

86/GW...87/WC

TXZ229>234-239>247-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THEN PUSH
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A FOWLERTON TO PREMONT LINE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

85

TXZ229>234-239>247-310300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CST MON DEC 30 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH VALID UNTIL
900 PM CST MONDAY EVENING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF
ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA
SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
VICTORIA AND WEBB.

SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE ALICE...ARANSAS PASS...
BEEVILLE...BENAVIDES...CORPUS CHRISTI...COTULLA...ENCINAL...GEORGE
WEST...GOLIAD...INGLESIDE...KINGSVILLE...LAREDO...MATHIS...PORT
ARANSAS...PORT LAVACA...PORT OCONNOR...PORTLAND...REFUGIO...
ROBSTOWN...ROCKPORT...SEADRIFT...SINTON...SKIDMORE...THREE
RIVERS...TILDEN AND VICTORIA.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WATCH AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
70 MPH.  ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO OCCUR
IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA. IF TORNADOES DO IN FACT DEVELOP OR ARE
SPOTTED...THEN A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
READY TO QUICKLY ACT IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA. IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM
AND LAY DOWN ON THE FLOOR. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...LAY FLAT DOWN ON THE
GROUND...PREFERABLY IN A DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT. NEVER TRY TO OUTRUN
SEVERE WEATHER.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

GW