Winter Storm in Texas, December 23 to 24, 2002

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CST SUN 22 DEC 2002

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
SPEED MAX ABOUT TO ROUND BASE OF LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE
NORTHERN BAJA IN NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...LOW CONTINUING TO EDGE
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OF ALL FORECAST
POSITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE LOW APPEAR TO BE ELONGATING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA SO LOOKS LIKE LOW WILL LIKELY REFORM
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF CURRENT POSITION OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW MORE INTENSITY AND CONTINUITY OF THIS LOW AS
IT EDGES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE LOW WILL BE MORE
TIGHTLY WOUND THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH APPEARING IT WILL LIKELY BE AN EJECTING
STRONG SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE ALOT OF IMPLICATION ON
TRACK...H850  MOISTURE FLUX...AND H700 WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS. NOW IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A DROP OFF IN PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY FOLLOWING THE EJECTING FIRE LOW BEFORE THE MAIN
PORTION OF THE COLD TROUGH PASSES ON TUESDAY.

FOR NOW WE FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE MODEL QPF AND HPC QPF AND
HEAVY SNOW OUTLOOKS TO ISSUE A HEAVY SNOW WARNING ACROSS OUR SIX
NORTHERN-MOST TIER OF COUNTIES...AND THE WESTERN-MOST FOUR COUNTIES
IN THE SECOND TIER.  WE ARE COMFORTABLE TO EXPECT AN APPROXIMATE SIX
INCH SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE.
IF ANY CORRECTION IS TO OCCUR TO QPF FROM THIS POINT...IT APPEARS IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE TO MOVE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...MORE SQUARELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DUE TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTIES...WE WILL HOLD ON TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER THE REMAINING COUNTIES...OTHER THAN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHICH STILL APPEAR TOO WARM AND TOO FAR FROM THE
FORECAST TRACK TO CONSIDER HEAVY SNOW. SO...CHANGES WILL BE TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION A BIT MORE AGRESSIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT AND TO ADD MORE OF A PHASE MIX AREA ACROSS CENTRAL COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ALSO MOVED MORE QUICKLY INTO THE SNOW
PHASE FOR THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THAN PREVIOUSLY. RAISED TONIGHTS
LOW TEMPERATURES A TAD...VERY CLOSE TO TOMORROWS EXPECTED HIGHS
WHICH WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE DAY. HECK OF A THING TO BE MOVING
THROUGH JUST PRIOR TO A BUSY TRAVEL DAY.   MCQUEEN

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SHOULD SEE THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MID-DAY TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA. COULD SEE ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF
THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS EAST. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MOST AREAS CHRISTMAS EVE
DUE TO SNOWPACK AND CLOUDS...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
CHRISTMAS DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY SMALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. WARMER AND DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN
TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MAKING IT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY.

THANKS TO AMA/ABQ/MAF FOR COORDINATION

FCSTID = 5/21

FRIONA      30 30 21 28 / 70 100 90 60
TULIA       31 31 21 30 / 60 100 90 60
LUBBOCK     32 32 24 31 / 60 100 90 70
BROWNFIELD  34 34 24 32 / 60 100 90 60
CHILDRESS   35 35 25 32 / 60 100 90 70
ASPERMONT   39 39 28 36 / 60 100 90 70

.LUB...HEAVY SNOW WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
       TXZ021>026-027>030.
.LUB...WINTER STORM WATCH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
       TXZ031-032-033>036-039>041.

TXZ021>044-221800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2002

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

WINTER WEATHER
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MAY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SEE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH PRODUCT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AT 430 AM FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REMEMBER A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM AND BE PREPARED FOR
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.