Damaging Wind in Tennessee, August 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
330 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2002

LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AMD EASTERN CANADA.
ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES AND A FRONTAL
ZONE LYING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

 LARGE H5 LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUT WEST...H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FROM MONTANA
TO KANSAS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. ANOTHER H5 TROUGH IS SEEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

SURFACE REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST VIRGINIA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT A
PROBLEM...BUT MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY. SOME
INDICATIONS ON THE MORNING SOUNDING THAT MID LEVELS WEFRE TRYING TO
MOISTEN UP. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY GOES AWAY WITH
ONLY A CUTOFF PORTION OF AN H5 TROUGH THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH
ON SUN/SUN NIGHT THAT FINALLY DRIFTS DOWN INTO THIS AREA MON NIGHT
AND TUE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURES THROUGH DAY 3.
MRF IS ADVERTISING A LOW COMING OUT OF THE GULF ON DAY 5/6 AND MOVING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WELL SEE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

BNA 68 86 68 86 /  10 40 20 30
CSV 65 81 64 81 /  20 50 30 40

.BNA...NONE.

JLM