Lightning Strike in Tennessee, August 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
300 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

IN THE SHORT-TERM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN (PLATEAU AND FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS) WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN THE VALLEY.  FEEL MORE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE VALLEYS LATER TODAY/EVENING.  WILL CALL FOR SCATTERED
STORMS...MAINLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT COVERAGE TO LESSEN ONCE DAYTIME
HEATING IS GONE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING OF STORMS.

MODELS SHOW SHEAR AXIS/WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEAKENING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS SOME OF THE ENERGY IS PULLED
NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVES.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL
MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN UNTIL FRONT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FOR SUNDAY.  WILL CONTINUE WITH 50-60 PERCENT POPS FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH 30 PERCENT
DURING THE NIGHT.  THE HIGHER POPS REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MAIN
LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

FCSTID =
CHA   72  88  72  88 /  30  60  30  50
TYS   71  87  70  87 /  30  50  30  50
TRI   67  86  67  86 /  30  50  30  50
OQT   71  86  70  87 /  30  60  30  50

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH

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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

SATELITTE SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS QUITE BIT HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS.  HARD TO
SEE ANY WEAK WAVES IN THE TROPICAL FLOW...BUT MAIN LIFT TODAY WILL
BE LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES.  BNA SOUNDING SHOWS PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES
WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY
TODAY.  STORM MOTION IS WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.  MAIN PROBLEM
TODAY WILL BE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS START TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

PLAN ON UPPING POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

DH
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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
305 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OUR AREA THIS RUN...ALTHOUGH APPEARS
AVN HAS FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND IS TOO STRONG WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAT
MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...ETA LOOKS
BETTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A FAIRLY MOIST PICTURE FOR OUR AREA
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE IMPRESSIVE...AND FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK.  THUS WILL
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS POPS...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE IN FOR THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND LOW CHANCE AT NIGHT.

WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.  OTHERWISE...MAV/FWC TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND
LOOK REASONABLE. WILL NOT STRAY FAR.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:
CHA   88  71  87  72 /  50  30  50  30
TYS   87  71  86  71 /  50  30  50  30
TRI   86  67  85  68 /  50  30  50  30
OQT   87  70  85  71 /  50  30  50  30

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION
925 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2002

CURRENT RADARS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS REMAIN OVER MIDDLE TN CLOSER TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EVENING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THUS...SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAINFALL.

WILL PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS...TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE...AND TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
ALL ZONES. TEMPS LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT CHANGE.

DMG