Hail in Kansas, August 15, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2002

...MAIN QUESTIONS THIS CYCLE WILL BE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND OVERNIGHT...

THE 12Z DIAGNOSTIC DATA SHOWS A HIGH LATITUDE WAVE 3 PATTERN WITH
THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX OVER THE ARCTIC FEEDING REPEATED SHOTS
OF COLD AIR SOUTH INTO CANADA AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY
VORTEX. THIS PROCESS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A POLAR FRONT BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN SUPPORT OF THE POLAR FRONT
CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IN THE POLAR BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES THIS MORNING WITH A FOLLOWING CANADIAN SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMED A NEAR TEXT BOOK
MORNING GLORY OVER WEST KANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ATOP THE STABLE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

ALL MODELS APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER TIME AT THAT SCALE.
WILL LOOK FOR THE CURRENT WAVE ALOFT TO CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON DRIVES SOUTH INTO MONTANA BY NOON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORCE A DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DRAWING THE CURRENT FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THIS NEXT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO FORCE AN OCCLUDING MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. GIVEN THE TIMING, WILL EXPECT ANOTHER UNDULAR
BORE ACROSS WEST KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL REQUIRE COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN SATURDAY
FOR MOST OF MY ZONES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. MORE OR LESS A RE-RUN OF TODAY.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY BUT
ABOVE IT FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AND LOWS SATURDAY MORNING. POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO MY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

DAYS 3-7...
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SW KS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES WITH A RETREATING BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS KANSAS. THIS
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CARRY 20%
POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE AND SFC
PRESSURES FALL SHARPLY BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIG WARMUP
AND WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 FOR TUE-WED. SW FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   60  95  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   59  96  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA   59  98  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   61  97  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   58  93  67  85 /   0   0   0   0
P28   69  94  73  95 /  30   0   0  30

.DDC...NONE.

JOHNSON/FINCH