Damaging Wind in South Dakota, July 20, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

PCPN CHC FIRST PERIOD AND THEN TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST QUANDRY.

FOR TODAY MODELS ALL QUITE SIMILAR WITH MID AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES.
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS
SFC LOW DEVELOPS TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  MEANWHILE IT APPEARS
THAT MID LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS NW SD AND SW ND.  COMBINATION
OF TWO WEATHER FEATURES AND COPIOUS MOISTURE HAS PRODUCED A
GRADUALLY GROWING AREA OF ELEVATED ALMOST TROPICAL LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA.  OVERALL EXPECT SVR WEATHER TO BE
LIMITED TO POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS GIVEN VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS
ACTIVITY TO LAST FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE WANING OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.  SECOND ROUND MAY GET GOING OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT PRESSES INTO VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIR.  HOWEVER BEST MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL AGAIN BE OVER AREAS
NORTH OF MY CWA AND ETA MAINTAINS RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL WARMTH.  ALL
THAT SAID...MAIN COVERAGE OF RAIN COULD VERY WELL BE THIS
MORNING.

FOR TNT ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS REGION.  THEREFORE WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF
PCPN FOR TNT ACROSS EAST AND FAR SOUTHERN CWA.  FOR SUNDAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING DEWPOINTS AND MILDER
TEMPS WHICH SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME DIDNT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

.ABR...NONE.
TDK