Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, June 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

SEEMS LIKE GROUNDHOG DAY (ALL OVER AGAIN) AS A REPLAY OF YDA/S WX IS
ONGOING TO SOME EXTENT...BUT FNT ARRIVING TNGT SHUD CAUSE LIKELY
POPS ALL ZONES AT SOME POINT TNGT. ENHANCED WORDING WAS CONCENTRATED
ON CNTRL AND NRN ZONES...THINKING THAT SVR CHARACTERISTICS MIGHT
WANE TWD/AFT MIDN SPCLY SERN ZONES...PERHAPS MORPHING INTO A HVY
RAIN EVENT BUT LO CONFIDENCE ON THAT.

OTHERWISE FNT HANGS UP FRI OVR CNTRL AND SRN AREAS SO WL CONT A CHC
OF RW/TRW...AS ANY ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY S/WV MOVG ACRS THE CWA.
FOR NWRN ZONES WL FCST LESS THAN 30 POP.

FAIR WX FRI NITE AND SAT...AND INTO THE XTDD PD XCP FOR CHC POPS TUE
AND WED NRN ZONES.

TEMPS...MOS IS WARMER FOR FRI THAN PREV RUNS AND IS GENLY ACCEPTED
ALL PDS.

SCA ON CSTL WATERS SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.

MPO   63  80  59  83 /  60  20   0   0
ABE   69  86  62  88 /  60  20   0   0
RDG   70  87  64  89 /  60  20   0   0
PHL   73  90  68  90 /  60  30   0   0
12N   67  85  61  87 /  60  20   0   0
SMQ   71  88  66  89 /  60  20   0   0
TTN   72  89  67  89 /  60  30   0   0
MIV   72  89  65  88 /  60  30   0   0
ACY   71  87  69  85 /  60  30   0   0
ILG   72  89  67  89 /  60  30   0   0
DOV   73  88  68  87 /  60  30   0   0
GED   73  90  68  88 /  60  30   0   0
ESN   72  89  68  88 /  60  30   0   0

.PHI...SCA CSTL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-272100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1103 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW JERSEY...FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE...AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND...

A WEAK FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH
THIS AFTERNOON/S HEAT...AS WELL AS THE HIGH HUMIDITY THAT CONTINUES
IN THE AIRMASS OVER US...MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS THOUGHT TO BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS...BUT HEAVY RAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO HUMID THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DURING MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE....AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

IF YOU OBSERVE THREATENING WEATHER...SEEK SHELTER AT ONCE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-017>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-
280000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
145 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT...

A WEAK FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH
THIS AFTERNOON/S HEAT...AS WELL AS THE HIGH HUMIDITY THAT CONTINUES
IN THE AIRMASS OVER US...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
AND SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

FOR THIS REASON THE STORM PREDICTIONS CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NEW JERSEY.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...CARBON...MONROE...BERKS...LEHIGH...NORTHAMPTON...
CHESTER...MONTGOMERY...BUCKS...DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA. IN NEW
JERSEY THE WATCH INCLUDES SUSSEX...WARREN...MORRIS...HUNTERDON...
SOMERSET...MIDDLESEX...MERCER...MONMOUTH...BURLINGTON...OCEAN...
CAMDEN AND GLOUCESTER AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT HEAVY RAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO HUMID THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DURING MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET TODAY.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCH OR GREATER IN DIAMETER IN AND
CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ADVANCE PLANNING DURING A WATCH IS ESSENTIAL. PERSONS SHOULD KNOW
WHERE TO GO AND WHAT TO DO IN THE EVENT A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS AND ASK THEM
TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FREQUENT
UPDATES THROUGH TIMELY STATEMENTS...NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OUR
INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.

TFG