Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, September 13, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
305 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2002

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM AND INSTABILITY
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH VISIBLE VIA
PROFILER DATA.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.  THE ONGOING PRECIP WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REDEVELOPING IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERN STREAM SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF EJECTING MAIN TROUGH AXIS.  NORTHERN AREAS WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST OVERNIGHT POPS IN PROXIMITY TO GREATEST FORCING.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE THE
I-44 CORRIDOR BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
WILL PROCEED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP AND RESULTANT RISE IN SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.  WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS TOMORROW FROM TULSA
NORTHWESTWARD WITH PRECIP SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
GIVING POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIP SO WILL NOT SHOW A LARGE
POP GRADIENT BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
HAVE A HARD TIME CLEARING FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE LOW ORDER POPS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES INTO SUNDAY WITH BOUNDARY REMAINING IN VICINITY.

GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS DISPITE ACTIVE
PERIOD HOWEVER DID SIDE WITH COOLER GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AS CLOUD
COVER MAY HANG ON INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS.

DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS WITH
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.  EXTENDED
GUIDANCE AT ODDS WITH UPPER PATTERN BY MID/LATE WEEK WITH SOLUTIONS
HINGING ON VARIOUS LOCATIONS TO WEST COAST SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY FAVORS KEEPING FORECAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGE.

TUL  70  86  64  78 /  50  70  50  10
FSM  68  89  67  80 /  30  50  70  30
MLC  69  89  65  78 /  30  50  70  30
BVO  66  85  60  78 /  50  70  50  10
FYV  64  86  62  75 /  40  50  70  20
BYV  63  84  61  75 /  40  50  70  20
MIO  64  82  59  74 /  50  50  60  10
MKO  69  86  65  78 /  40  50  60  20
F10  70  88  64  77 /  40  50  60  10
HHW  69  89  67  81 /  30  50  70  30

FORECAST ID = 07

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2002

...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE EAST. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2002

...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE 50 MPH WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAT OF THE DAY DESTABILIZES THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MOVE TO THE EAST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS AS WELL.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA