Ice Storm in Oklahoma, December 3 to 4, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
330 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2002

WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUING TO EXPAND AND MOVE EASTWARD OUT
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ADVANCING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THUS FAR
ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER STILL OUT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
...BUT PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.  WILL UPDATE WINTER
STORM WATCH OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  SHOULD SEE ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...OR EARLY AFTERNOON
IN THE EAST AS SYSTEM MOVES ON BY.  MAY HAVE THE WATCH/WARNING A
LITTLE TO FAR TO THE SOUTH INCLUDING THE EUFAULA AND MUSKOGEE
AREAS...BUT WILL LEAVE IN PLACE FOR NOW.

WILL MAINLY CONCENTRATE ON ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF I-44.  ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44 WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH MORE OF A MIXTURE OF WINTRY WEATHER...AND MAY
VERY LIKELY BE A FREEZING RAIN EVENT.  WILL ADVISE EVENING SHIFT TO
WATCH CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP TYPE CLOSING IN THE EVENT ADJUSTMENTS
NEED TO BE MADE TO THE WARNING AREA.

SHOULD BE A RATHER QUIET BUT COOL STRETCH AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  WILL SEE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

TUL  30  31  22  37 /  90  60  10   5
FSM  34  34  24  39 /  90  50  10   5
MLC  34  34  24  41 / 100  50  10   5
BVO  28  30  18  35 /  90  60  10   5
FYV  30  30  18  36 /  90  60  10   5
BYV  29  29  18  34 /  90  60  10   5
MIO  28  30  17  34 /  90  60  10   5
MKO  32  32  22  38 /  90  50  10   5
F10  32  32  24  38 / 100  50  10   5
HHW  36  37  24  43 / 100  50  10   5

FORECAST ID= 4
.TSA...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
OKZ054>071.

AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CST TUE DEC 03 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK

AREA 1...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OKEMAH TO FAYETTEVILLE

PROBABILITY OF ICING/SIGNIFICANT ICING...90/40
PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SIGNIFICANT SNOW...90/70

AREA 2...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OKEMAH TO FAYETTEVILLE

PROBABILITY OF ICING/SIGNIFICANT ICING...30/10
PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SIGNIFICANT SNOW...30/10

DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE RAIN COULD INITIALLY BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW NORTH AND WEST
OF TULSA. AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS DOWN THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
A SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF A OKEMAH TO FAYETTEVILLE
LINE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT WITH 3 TO
5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF A OKEMAH TO
FAYETTEVILLE LINE.

REFER TO WINTER STORM WATCH /OKCWSWTUL/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SIGNIFICANT ICING IS DEFINED AS 1/4 OR GREATER ACCUMULATION.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS DEFINED AS 4 OR GREATER ACCUMULATION.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION
TO SNOW ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA