Hail and Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, August 2, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1020 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

COUPLE OF FEATURES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FRONT HAS DRIFTED INTO NRN OK FAR NW AR. WIND
SHFT IS NEAR A HRO TO TUL TO SWO LINE. WITH MESONET
OBS SHOWING DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG FRONT WITH VALUES
IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH OF I-44.

SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTO NC
ARK. WAVE IS FCST BY 12Z ETA TO CONT TO MOVE TO THE W/SW
ALONG OK/ARK BORDER BY 03Z. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE SOUTH OF HRO THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE
WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SPREADING W INTO CARROLL AND
MADISON COUNTIES.

FCST CAPES AREAWIDE ARE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG SO PULSE
SHORT LIVED SVR STORM CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE MOST
LIKELY IN E AND N ZONES. WILL UP POPS IN THESE AREAS TO
30% CHC THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD 20% POPS TO E/SE ZONES
THIS EVE WHERE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY HELP KEEP ISO CONVECTION
GOING UNTIL DARK.

TEMPS ALREADY IN MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH TRENDS INDICATING
GOING MID/UPPER 90S LOOK OK. NO WIND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS ALONG
AND N OF WIND SHIFT WILL CREATE VERY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110. NOT MUCH
BETTER IN SRN ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT.
/13
.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
A STALLED WEAK FRONT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT
WILL WASH OUT TODAY AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL DISSIPATE BY
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY KEEP STORMS GOING UNTIL
DARK IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...HOWEVER A STORM OR TWO MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
CAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES FROM -6 TO -8
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE OR NO CAP. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...THEREFORE ANY
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND POORLY ORGANIZED.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS INTO THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AREAWIDE BY DARK.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY

AREA 1...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER HAIL.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA