Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY.  SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
COMBINE WITH SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SFC
CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER SCT TSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SFC MAP HAS COLD FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
OUR CWA.  DEW POINTS ARE NOTICEABLY DRIER IN THE 50S ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN CONTRAST TO OUR UPPER 60S.  THOUGH CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN NEW YORK...PLENTY OF CU HAVE FORMED OVER
OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND I EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WATCH BOX TO OUR NORTHEAST PORTENDS POSSIBLE WATCH FOR US LATER
TODAY.  WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND RATHER FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AFTER THIS EVENINGS TSRA DIE OUT...TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT.  MORE WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY.  WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN
LATER...ILL GO WITH 30% CHANCE FOR TSRA LATE.  WITH THE FRONT
REMAINING IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ILL KEEP CHANCE
TSRA FOR BOTH PERIODS.

FWC TEMPS APPEAR A BIT TOO COOL EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY...SO ILL RAISE
FWC ACCORDINGLY.

.ILN...NONE.

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-312100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1144 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DRY AIR ALOFT AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LISTEN
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON
THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

RYAN