Damaging Wind in Ohio, July 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2002

FOLLOWING ARE ALL FORECASTER DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE MOST RECENT ON TOP.  THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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243 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2002

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS.  EXTENDING
CHANCE POPS ALL NIGHT...CONCERNED THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE WITH
QUITE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LOTS OF RIPPLES/BOUNDARIES AROUND.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING AT MIN
HEATING...BUT WILL NOT TIME IN ZONES.  STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
AROUND WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HELPING UVV VALUES. TOMORROW
NIGHT LOOKS A LOT LIKE TONIGHT AS LAKES FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
NORTH OF CWA WITH CONTINUED PW VALUES IN 1.5-1.8 INCH RANGE.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO CLOUD/TEMP FIELDS.  THINK FWC IS A BIT
OVERDONE WITH HIGHS TOMORROW AS WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLIMB THROUGH
THE 80S TODAY.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

MODELS INDICATE A FEW FRONTS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD.  SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES.  HOWEVER...CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A STORM OR TWO JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANYTIME.

CL/JSH

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1005 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2002

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)

GOING GRIDS/ZFP LOOK PRETTY GOOD.  SHRA FORMING ON LEADING EDGE OF
SHORTWAVE RIPPLE OVER ERN KY.  EXPECT REMAINING LOW CLOUD TO LIFT UP
INTO CU DECK.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED IN NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR BUT WITH PW VALUES IN THE
1.5-1.8 RANGE...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY...10 KNOTS OR SO FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

ONLY REAL CHANGE TO GRIDS WILL BE TO RAISE QPF FIELDS A BIT
...RECOGNIZING THE ENVIRONMENT.

CL
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400 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2002

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE.  THE AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE AND THE LIFT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE TEMPERATURES HIGHS TODAY WILL LOWER TOWARD THE COOLER
MAVS.  THE LOW TONIGHT WILL KEPT THE SAME WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.

(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
LOOKS LIKE WAVE OF PRECIP EXITS EARLY FRI NGT AS MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING THE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  TRYING TO SEE AN END TO
THIS TREND...HAVE NEXT WEDNESDAY AS DRY FOR NOW AS PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD OF THE CWA.

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930 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2002

(EVENING UPDATE)
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY MOVED INTO FAR WESTERN
ZONES THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING.  STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND TO THE WEST BUT THEY
ALSO ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING.  BEST ACTION REMAINS WELL TO
SOUTH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...MOVING EAST.

THE SW TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OFF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH SRN INDIANA INTO SW OHIO.  ATTM IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
PRECIP IS BASICALLY OVER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  MODELS DO GENERATE
SOME UVVS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS CWA.  ALSO WITH VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY RENEGADE SHOWERS.

THEREFORE, WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PART
OF CWA...DOWN FROM 50 TO 30 POP.  WILL CONTINUE 50 POP ACROSS
SOUTHERN CWA WITH EXPECTED DYNAMICS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND IN GOOD SHAPE.

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247 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2002

SHORT-TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

KJKL WSR-88D INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF.

THE CONVECTION CORRESPONDS QUITE GOOD WITH THE 12UTC MESOETA PRECIP
INFORMATION.  USING THIS MODEL AS A BASIS...BELIEVE AREA WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD OUR CWA BY MORNING.  WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BELIEVE THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE.

BELIEVE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...AIRMASS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE
MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...
PLAN TO NOT MENTION TIMING AS MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROFS WILL BE IN THE AREA.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD.  SO OUTSIDE OF A FEW TWEAKS...WILL
GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD WORK INTO REGION
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.  OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO EARLIER
PACKAGE.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/