Hail in North Dakota, August 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
150 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

SAME WEATHER STORY THIS FORECAST RELEASE. WEAK PATTERN SURFACE AND
ALOFT WITH LOW PRESSURE TROFF AT THE SURFACE MEANDERING AROUND BUT
REMAINING OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN IT
FINALLY WASHES OUT. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THAT ANOTHER TROFF BEGINS
TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE PATTERN ALOFT IS MUCH
THE SAME ALSO...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY INTO THE STATE NEARLY EVERY FORECAST PERIOD OR SO.

WITH THIS SCENARIO THE CUSTOMER IS BEST SERVED WITH FORECAST
CONTINUITY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS EVERY DAY...WITH THE
THOUGHT THAT THE CUSTOMER UNDERSTANDS THAT 30-40 PERCENT POPS
INDICATE THAT NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL GET RAIN...BUT THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS NEXT H5 TROFF ADVANCES ONTO
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
ONE IS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF RIDGING.

MODEL OF CHOICE CONTINUES TO BE AVN...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE
FWC FOR TEMPERATURES HAS SERVED ME WELL PAST THREE DAYS. WILL STICK
WITH IT.

BACKING UP A BIT...FOR TODAY...WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK IT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
EAST-SOUTHEAST WHICH ALLOWS FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE MOISTURE INCREASE.
ALSO...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 80S WITH FORECAST HIGH NEAR
90.

.BIS...NONE.

JP MARTIN