Hail in North Dakota, April 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
115 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2002

MAJOR SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD FROM A MINOT/BISMARCK LINE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...EXITING THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA (JMS
AND SOUTH) BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER IN THE
JAMESTOWN AREA THROUGH 6 PM...AS THE WARM SECTOR HAS NOW WRAPPED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

THE OTHER HALF OF THE SYSTEM POSES A THREAT OF SOME WET SNOW TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
CURRENTLY RAIN IS FALLING IN THIS AREA AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S. HOWEVER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY
BE ENOUGH TO COOL THE AIR COLUMN DOWN ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOW. I
WILL HANDLE THIS FEATURE WITH A STATEMENT...AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
TO BE UNDER 3 INCHES...AND WILL COVER A SMALL AREA.

THE NEXT BIG LOW WILL THREATEN OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A GREATER RISK OF SNOW NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THIS LOW AS COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND THE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL LIE CLOSER TO THIS
COLDER AIR. I USED THE ETA FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MODELS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR FROM CANADA BETTER THAN THE WARMER AND LOWER
RESOLUTION AVN MODEL.

.BIS...NONE.
RS LEBLANG

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-162200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
416 AM CDT TUE APR 16 2002

...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BY MIDNIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS...
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
IN THE JAMESTOWN TO ELLENDALE AREAS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS FAR WEST AS BISMARCK.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW HAS PRODUCED RAIN AND SNOW IN EASTERN MONTANA
AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR THE FORMATION OF
SNOW....AND...DEPENDING UPON THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL EITHER GET RAIN...OR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW.